What if this fusion power thing actually pans out? The ITER is on track, and the scale model test in China earlier this year looked very promising. If we had access to (what from our perspective seems like) infinite clean energy what could we do with it? Transmute elements? Desalinize seawater? Drive a rotating magnetic field the size of the planet for wireless global electric power? What are the limits?
SPARC is on track too. I think it might actually end up a little ahead of schedule.
I don't think widespread fusion power is really possible under capitalism for the same reasons we have so much trouble building fission power plants (it's more about up front costs than it is about waste). But if the Chinese start building tons of fusion power, that might bully the west into doing it so they don't look bad, like the USSR and the space race. And if we actually overthrow the damn system, we'll be able to rapidly roll out fusion power.
However it pans out, I think we'll have fusion around in time to stop some horrible global warming milestone (though which milestone remains to be seen).
Honestly, if fusion turns out to be viable, we could actually do carbon capture. It would change everything.
We can already do carbon capture. Handy things called trees
Is there a viable carbon capture technology that's just short a shitload of power?
There are plenty of options, its not so much a shortage of power, as it is being able to power them without generating more carbon than they capture, or close enough that the effects just aren’t economically viable. Cheap clean energy could open a lot of doors.
We're twenty years away from fusion, and we've been twenty years away from fusion for the last sixty years.
However, thorium fission reactors have already been proven to deliver a total net positive energy.
I’m sorry but that’s just not true.
ITER, the project @wrecker_vs_dracula is talking about, is a 500MW net positive fusion power plant being built in France.
It’s a massively multinational project that has cost it’s 35 member nations, including China, India, Russia, the US, the UK and the EU more than 20 billion USD so far. The member nations have agreed to fully share all IP and research resulting from the project.
It was initially proposed by Gorbachev in 1986, funded in 2006 and construction began in 2007. It’s scheduled to come online for the first time in December 2025.
Fusion was 20 years away 20 years ago.
Now it’s almost here.
Well how about that, glad I'm wrong!
Though in the short term, thorium rock salt still seems like the best rout for ending petroleum dependence.
When they say net positive, they are referring specifically to the plasma reaction (Q) and not the ability to extract energy. Total electrical output will be near 0. The tech is sadly still 20 year away.
In 2025 it's supposed to be just first plasma (not fusion). I think first fusion is scheduled for 2035
We have been 20 years away from fusion for 50 years because funding has stayed stagnant for 50 years
The limits are time, or the lack thereof.
There's no question that fusion tech is/will be viable in the near future; the physics is on our side, and there's no real reason why it can't happen on a smaller scale. However, safety testing and setup for a real-deal "live" reactor will take decades. The closest analogue we have are nuclear power plants, and those take anywhere from 10-20 years to set up from end of construction to full operational status. I imagine a fusion plant would involve a similar timescale, and possibly more time still as it's brand new tech.
As for the energy limitlessness, that's not quite accurate; they still require fairly exotic fuel sources, and while not exactly in short supply, the locations in which they're present are limited, so not every nation will have access.
But to get to my previous point, is that we are running against a climate apocalypse countdown, and the numbers are currently not on humanity's side. I hope a working plant gets made soon, but I'm not seeing it.
I suppose getting the ITER up and running is dependent on war not breaking out in Europe and continued global scientific collaboration. Assuming that these conditions will hold out is maybe overoptimistic given the track record of the last three hundred years of history and the looming threat of environmental crisis.
One thing I haven't got my head around is the scale of projected lithium demand if deuterium-tritium fusion becomes a dominant energy source. Maybe a good comparison would be against current lithium demand for batteries. Are we looking at a big increase in lithium demand, or would the quantity required be relatively insignificant?
Because we live in an unstable world, and a lot can change in a few decades.
It's not likely, but it isn't impossible either.
I think what @wrecker_vs_dracula is being optimistic about is that we’re significantly more advanced along that timeline than I think you realise.
ITER, is a 20 billion dollar massively multinational fusion project that’s been building a fusion power plant since 2006. It’s projected to be 500 MW net positive and scheduled to come online December 2025.
ITER also doesn’t actually require any particularly exotic fuels. It’s powered by the Deuterium-Tritium reaction so they only need Deuterium, which can be distilled from sea or almost any other type of water and Tritium, which the reaction breeds from (comparatively insignificant) quantities of lithium.
You’re almost certainly right about future plants still taking 15-20 years to build but being 20-25 years away from fusion as a primary power source is still extremely cool, and if it probably won’t be in time to significantly slow down global warming, I think it at the very least can give us hope we might be able to unfuck things afterwards.
This is what I was gonna say. We can construct fission plants now though that have similar power outputs to a theoretical fusion plant but just require thorium and water
its basically a sure thing imo, but im not very optimistic
we're going to have fully operational fusion and get told that its just too expensive :doomer:
Fusion will be really useful as a baseline high density fuel source. But it's not a silver bullet. Also it's going to be a lot of fun when some grifter energy firm cuts costs, causes a steam explosion at their token test plant and the public realise that the reactor internals are in fact rather spicy even if it doesn't produce waste.
I think the US would immediately begin a hot war with China and get crushed
