This is a complete dreamworld prediction. I'm not some doom porner, but this is like, a top 0.1% of situations scenario.
OH is more likely to go for the GOP by double digits than it is for Democrats. The GOP has swept every race there for 5 years except for one Senate race in 2018. PA is probably 60/40 GOP at this point. The GOP won the congressional vote there in 2020. Alaska is a safe Republican seat with Murkowski there. North Carolina isn't impossible but it's a tossup at best.
Iowa is running Chuck Grassley, who is imensely popular there and won by 35 points in 2016, outperforming Trump by nearly 30. He's basically untouchable. Missouri is not flipping. Louisiana is not fucking flipping. These races are more likely to go for the GOP by 20 points than they are for Democrats to win. The GOP is more likely to flip Colorado than the Democrats are to flip Ohio or Missouri.
Redistricting will help the GOP more than the Democrats, probably net the GOP an extra one or two seats since the states that are gaining the most seats are Florida and Texas which have complete GOP control of redistricting. Redistricting won't be the bloodbath some of the doomsayers have predicted, but will still help the GOP a bit.
The TV is not saying Biden is the best thing since sliced bread. They annihilated him over Afghanistan and are starting to question his competence with the current failure over infrastructure and the Delta surge. There is no evidence of any clamping down on Facebook. Biden's approval rating is 5 points underwater because the TV is blasting him.
Furthermore, Democrats are defending seats in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. Those are far from sure things. The most likely scenario is the GOP ends up with like, 52 seats by holding the midwest and flipping a couple Sun Belt states. A good night for Democrats would be like, winning 52 seats by flipping the Midwest+NC and holding the Sun Belt. But the idea that the GOP isn't favored - even slightly - in the Senate is lunacy.
OH and PA have ZERO energy candidates on the GOP side. Democrats will easily win those races on high turnout due to high Democratic enthusiasm. Same with NC.
Missouri is not impossible. Roy Blunt won by less than 3% in 2016 when Trump won by 18.
Redistricting will HELP the Democrats overall. The extra seats in TX and FL and balanced out by other states that are using non-partisan redistricting committees for the first time. Dems will easily gain 5+ House seats between that and high turnout.
The media will help the Democrats out when it's election time. No worries there, the conservatives will laugh themselves out of the room as usual.
Nevada and Arizona are safe Dem wins, Nevada probably by double digits. Georgia favors Dems 60/40 odds, they probably win it by like 4.
This is a complete dreamworld prediction. I'm not some doom porner, but this is like, a top 0.1% of situations scenario.
OH is more likely to go for the GOP by double digits than it is for Democrats. The GOP has swept every race there for 5 years except for one Senate race in 2018. PA is probably 60/40 GOP at this point. The GOP won the congressional vote there in 2020. Alaska is a safe Republican seat with Murkowski there. North Carolina isn't impossible but it's a tossup at best.
Iowa is running Chuck Grassley, who is imensely popular there and won by 35 points in 2016, outperforming Trump by nearly 30. He's basically untouchable. Missouri is not flipping. Louisiana is not fucking flipping. These races are more likely to go for the GOP by 20 points than they are for Democrats to win. The GOP is more likely to flip Colorado than the Democrats are to flip Ohio or Missouri.
Redistricting will help the GOP more than the Democrats, probably net the GOP an extra one or two seats since the states that are gaining the most seats are Florida and Texas which have complete GOP control of redistricting. Redistricting won't be the bloodbath some of the doomsayers have predicted, but will still help the GOP a bit.
The TV is not saying Biden is the best thing since sliced bread. They annihilated him over Afghanistan and are starting to question his competence with the current failure over infrastructure and the Delta surge. There is no evidence of any clamping down on Facebook. Biden's approval rating is 5 points underwater because the TV is blasting him.
Furthermore, Democrats are defending seats in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. Those are far from sure things. The most likely scenario is the GOP ends up with like, 52 seats by holding the midwest and flipping a couple Sun Belt states. A good night for Democrats would be like, winning 52 seats by flipping the Midwest+NC and holding the Sun Belt. But the idea that the GOP isn't favored - even slightly - in the Senate is lunacy.
OH and PA have ZERO energy candidates on the GOP side. Democrats will easily win those races on high turnout due to high Democratic enthusiasm. Same with NC.
Missouri is not impossible. Roy Blunt won by less than 3% in 2016 when Trump won by 18.
Redistricting will HELP the Democrats overall. The extra seats in TX and FL and balanced out by other states that are using non-partisan redistricting committees for the first time. Dems will easily gain 5+ House seats between that and high turnout.
The media will help the Democrats out when it's election time. No worries there, the conservatives will laugh themselves out of the room as usual.
Nevada and Arizona are safe Dem wins, Nevada probably by double digits. Georgia favors Dems 60/40 odds, they probably win it by like 4.