Democrats lose a statewide race in Virginia for the first time since 2009, breaking a 12-0 run in the state. They lost to an ultramillionaire who spent the whole campaign yelling about critical race theory while the Democrat just called him "Glenn Trumpkin" the whole race.
It does have to do with the candidate too, KY had a uniquely repulsive governor and replaced him with a dem in 2019/2020, brain farting on which, while every other state seat went red.
I agree with you that Kentucky in 2019 was a special case - a uniquely bad Republican for governor got a lot of people to ticket-split for the Democrat, that's not what happened here. This was a pretty uniform swing, and the GOP swept the governor, lieutanant governor, attorney general, and probably will flip the house of delegates too (that one's too close to call right now). This isn't one candidate running a bad campaign, this is voters rejecting the Democrats and swinging right.
Whether you think it's because of the economy, critical race theory, the pandemic, or whatever is another debate, but I think it's pretty fair to say this race in particular isn't canddiate-driven.
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