I heard being vaxxed but unboosted gives you the same odds against omicron as unvaxxed against delta or something? Idk. I always wear my mask, but should I stop eating at restaurants and stuff too?
All 3 doses were Pfizer if it matters
idk but you're significantly safer than without the booster
I think restaurants will be a bad idea from this weekend to the end of January but that's my unscientific opinion
I've been mentally bumping everything I hear up by an order of magnitude cause Hellworld so I'm probably not gonna be out till next summer at least lol
I think restaurants are a bad idea all the time during an airborne pandemic without a sterilizing vaccine, though there is room for some calculated risks if the case load is particularly low in your area.
It simply makes you more likely to survive if you catch it. I'd still take precautions.
long
[A*stralia's] Chief Medical Officer Professor Paul Kelly said while the Omicron variant does appear more likely to break through the protection provided by two doses compared to the Delta variant, it remains unlikely to bring on severe illness.
"We know that … the first two doses of the vaccine are not effective at stopping infection and mild illness as it was with previous variants of the virus," he said.
"The vaccine remains effective against severe disease, perhaps a little less than is the case with Delta, for example, but it does remain effective.
"And I think that's one of the reasons why we are seeing increases in cases, but not so much of an increase in hospitalisations or other forms of severe disease."
Professor Kelly said a booster shot can lift a person's immunity against Omicron to roughly the same level as two doses provide against the Delta variant.
"Boosters do indeed boost that protection — both against transmission and infection and against severe disease," he said.
"Two doses for Delta, three doses for Omicron is roughly equal."
I don't think so but maybe someone else has more knowledge on that.
Man. Kind of an aside here: even though this has been going on so long at this point and there are over 800k dead not including collateral/excess deaths, reading about this new surge still feels like a fever dream.
I remember being told many times by bio teachers throughout elementary/lower school that the world was overdue (statistically) for a global viral epidemic... and that's just like actually happening now. The shit is crazy. Am I asleep? It feels like it pretty often.
The absolute foreboding dread surrounding the approach of this next wave is almost as intense as the moment I first understood the initial wave wasn't just going away like the other flu scares from my childhood. The omicron thing fees like a nuke went off and you can see the flash and the mushroom cloud and you are just standing there waiting for the blast wave
It takes a couple of weeks to reach full effectiveness, but isn't it something like 65-70% chance of not needing hospitalization if you're infected with omicron if you've had all three shots? I swear I saw a source on that in the past few days that put it in that range. It helps a little bit with spread/initial infection, too, but I don't think we have numbers on it yet. Think of it as "flu shot" levels of protection, as opposed to "polio vaccine" levels. It helps, but you're still at risk.
It's early enough that there isn't a ton of hard data yet, and either way, it doesn't look great -- personally, I recommend being a weird shut-in for as long as you can stand. No-contact takeout and delivery are still options at most places; might as well not endanger kitchen staff any more than they already are.
Disclaimer: I'm a weird shut-in. Username is only semi-ironic.
Edit: dug through my browser history and found the link. The booster prevents around 55% to 80% of symptomatic cases:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/12/17/nation/uk-study-finds-no-evidence-omicron-cases-are-less-severe-than-delta/Having had COVID probably only offers 19% protection against Omicron, the study showed on Friday. That was roughly in line with two doses of vaccine, which the team estimated were as much as 20% effective against Omicron. Adding a booster dose helped dramatically, blocking an estimated 55% to 80% of symptomatic cases.
...
There was no evidence of Omicron cases being less severe than Delta, based on the proportion of people testing positive who had symptoms or went to the hospital, the team said.
Just how severe Omicron cases will be remains unclear. It’s too soon to say how hospitalizations will play out in the UK. In South Africa, which announced the discovery of the variant on Nov. 25, authorities said on Friday the rate of hospitalizations seems to be lower than during the country’s earlier wave of Delta infections.
65-70% chance of not needing hospitalization
I'm pretty sure it's way higher than that. A quick search shows that that's probably around where the rate of prevention of symptomatic infection is, rather than of hospitalization.
You're probably right. My memory is absolute shit right now, and I wish I still had the source. Hospitalization rate was still up there with Delta for breakthrough cases, though.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59615005
TERF island state media says ~75% protection from symptomatic infection based on early analysis, but the article is over a week old already.
Boston Globe reported similar numbers; updated my original comment with the article link.
Masks are absolutely capable of protecting you if you use an actual N95 or a Bane respirator mask instead of the shitty leaky cloth and paper masks.
In about a week you will be fairly well-protected from severe illness and somewhat protected from infection in general.
The amount of protection for you isn't based on super solid numbers, so I would be cautious just in case. Also, the chance that you pass on the virus in general seems to be much higher than before, so mask use and careful behavior are the order of the day.
According to this UK WHO study from 3 days ago
Depending on the estimates used for vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection from the Delta variant, this translates into vaccine effectiveness estimates against symptomatic Omicron infection of between 0% and 20% after two doses, and between 55% and 80% after a booster dose. Similar estimates were obtained using genotype data, albeit with greater uncertainty.
The third dose goes a long way (55-80%, which is at least as good as what two shots did against Delta) towards preventing symptomatic infection, but you do still need to be careful.
