A poll commissioned by Bild showed that 14% of voters would vote for the Union - the same as for the SPD, which is represented by Chancellor Scholz.
Two more coalition pro-government parties - the Greens and the Free Democrats - would gain 12% and 4%, respectively, in a hypothetical election to the Bundestag.
At the same time, the right-wing Alternative for Germany, which also advocates ending support for Ukraine and accepting Ukrainian refugees, would score 18%.
The next elections to the Bundestag will take place in autumn 2025.
more about the party https://responsiblestatecraft.org/sarah-wagenknecht/
A more recent poll (from 2 days ago) finds that 21% stated they would either definitely (4%) or probably (17%) vote for BSW.
It is definitely one of the most interesting developments in German politics and I think it will have a net benefit, if only bc of its authentic opposition to warhorny transatlanticism that otherwise owns German politics and media.
However I can't read this party yet honestly, the sentiment towards it in Germany is a remarkable ball of contradictions. My two cents as a German, when I read the (understandable) hopes that it could be a socialist party.
Although the central founder (SW) was a socialist in her youth, I can definitely not call it a socialist party, they themselves don't. And in the recent press conference regarding their founding they also explained why, while many members come from a leftist tradition, they don't call themselves "leftist" (its important to not that left/right have different connotations in every country), their explanation was along the lines that these words have lost their meaning to the German people.
They gathered some of the best politicians you can get from the German left, their recent recruitment of Fabio De Masi is something hopeful, whose stance against finance capital is one of the staunchest (he is a union/reform-socialist, I guess that's the best you can get in Germany..)
However in their public communication there is nothing Marxist. They carry bourgeoise ideals on their banner. Since the established parties currently increasingly turn towards authoritarian measures and crackdowns against leftist groups there might be a strategic benefit in it for leftist groups though.
Their perception is dominated by other factors since the media exclusively focusses on them:
In Germany the "culture war" is a bit different than in the US, however here their position is not super appealing. They call out a lack of legislation focussing on material conditions of workers, but they draw from the culture war that this necessitates opposition to socially progressive topics and adopt somewhat of a reactionary position in some of these regards. IIRC SW called herself socially conservative.
This is one of the reasons why the parts receives more hostility from the liberals that consider themselves of the left, the other is their stance on refugee policy. While some of their members have in the past advocated for open borders it is their official position that "the numbers need to be lower", their argument is not the ethnic-popular one that the media tries to put in their mouth but that integration-efforts are past its limits to which there is probably some truth to.
Their championing of bourgeoise values and the parts of their position to gender politics that are reactionary as well as their refugee policy seems to be much of the reason for their popularity. Partly bc the media focusses on these things exclusively (and on unfounded speculations they might be "in the Kremlins pocket"). But also no other German party wants peace in Ukraine and the Palestine and that appeals to people as well. They have some credibility bc they address truisms that are swept under the rug, like that the Nordstream bombing was facilitated by the US. The husband of the central founder was literally the only politician who would talk openly and frequently about the influence of US intelligence agencies.
All this will lead to a lot of member-applications from problematic corners os German society. They have announced that they will be careful with their admissions, and I see potential for growth in a "good" direction (probably not socialist tho).
While I see that they do and say some things bc it is necessary in our political landscape and having a traditional socialist party is impossible in Germany, I can't bring myself to see them as Socialists with a practical strategy, but they are also not Nazbols. Currently (I didn't dive into it) I believe they represent a true demsoc approach and flirt with that part of the national bourgeoisie that stands to lose a lot from transatlanticism, like companies who deal with Russia and China.
I believe strategic support is the right way currently, but I doubt they can be swayed towards a Socialist evolution. How they develop will be greatly influenced by how they will deal with the incentives they operate in, like capital interests and the media stirred excitement of reactionary elements for them.
Didn't wanna cloud anyone's enthusiasm, they are good news, especially with the AfD turning more and more radical on the right AND having more and more success in the polls.
Thanks, that's a good overview of the state of things. I agree that the conditions currently don't exist for an actual Marxist party, but there does need to be an alternative vision to AfD, and this party seems like the most promising option right now. German politics is going to be interesting to watch in the coming years I suspect. There are going to be huge economic challenges resulting from the war and economic decoupling from Russia. My expectation is that the current neoliberal system will continue to discredit itself, and this will drive people out of the centre further to the right and to the left.
What's really important right now is to have a credible alternative vision to the one that AfD is peddling. It's basically a battle of narratives of how things got the way they are and how to solve these problems. The left needs to have good answers to these questions that people can get behind.
Thank you for your assessment, yogthos. For what its worth, I think you are spot on.
In Germany huge discussions have erupted on how to cut back on social spending at every corner. How to exert more pressure on the unemployed and force workers to accept less.
As Luxemburg said we'll see the capitalist class rolling back concessions, with all the consequences you laid out. And not only is Germany decoupling from Russia, but also "de-risking" from China
And the left is vastly unprepared/nonexistent, while the right is getting more and more organized.
One more concern to add: while economic opportunities are closed left and right currently I see only one being actively opened which is weapons production.
Should Germany become dependent on wartime-like production than wartime will be certain be it near or far and with US imperialists being as desperate as they are I see little resistance from them. And liberals who have gotten used to justifying wars might be tempted twice bc weapons production might keep the worst economic consequences and hence the AfD at bay
If the Left cannot find answers, there are more ways than one that lead to barbarism
Very much agree with all that. Hopefully the left can find its footing before we have a repeat of the 30s.
I hope with you, and I am trying to do my part here (so that hopefully you guys don't have to do all the work again...).
Off topic but while I have the chance: thank you comrade for your tremendous work here. But also in FP and Clojure. It was a fun realization that you are the same person;)
Oh hey thanks, it's a small world. :)
Just a question for you comrade, is it impossible to have a traditional socialist because of laws or just the political climate?
I'm not too well versed on German politics.
Not that guy but the constitutional court ruled back in the 50s that the german constitution is economically neutral, and as such, socialism is agreeable upon it as long as it preserved the "spirit of the constitution"
The thing is just every institution was filled to the brim with nazis and has the expected trajectory. The Verfassungsschutz, the home security equivalent, considers anything but capitalism to be against the constitution, despite that ruling
Good question, I remember being a bit insecure writing that sentence. Please don't put too much trust in that comment of mine as I still have had little praxis to challenge my analysis. Anyways, my thoughts there were a bit convoluted, not sure if it came across correctly.
What I was thinking about when I wrote it was "you can't have a traditional socialist party that successful", where I meant only electoral success and only in the short-term. Yeah I'd make out mostly political climate as the cause for that.
I didn't want to say that the pursuit of a Socialist party is not worthwhile, I think it is. Although I wonder if an obvious socialist party will be able to get off the ground or whether a "Black Panthers" approach (in terms of being not-too-obviously socialist) would be more promising.
Such estimates are always speculative without praxis to probe ones conceptions though.
There are two parties in Germany that bear the label ML (DKP and MLPD), both have next to zero visibility and are under the observation of the intelligence services. They are considered to be enemies of the German constitution (not surprisingly since that grants the right to private property). I believe they are only not banned bc their influence it negligible and a legal pursuit would bind resources and give them previously unknown visibility.
I would see both as some evidence for my claims but I have to say I am not speaking from personal experience I've had no interaction with either party (I wonder if I would admit to that online).
But yeah I personally know way more foreigners here who are Socialist than Germans. In France and Italy Socialism is way more present as a concept. We have no clue what the word means. For most of us it means nothing. And for the rest its what the the dusty, old men from the "Unrechtsstaat" GDR talked about when they wanted to steal from and control the people. its a failure of the past, not a success of the future. and speaking of it is dangerous, the economy is bad as it is.
We've had the "Radikalenerlasse", the congress for cultural freedom, the CIA building up our media and intelligence services all purging Socialist knowledge from public consciousness while at the same time our "big brother" helped us to become the so-called richest nation in Europe. The material conditions have been comparably fine for us under liberalism, people fear falling back into the GDR trap.
Germany, having been in the center of US Crosshairs of cold-war efforts has left a nasty scar on us, it will take some time and probably a worsening of the economic conditions but most of all a big educational effort from us comrades to get back.
The way I see it, the next years will both make that a necessity as it was never before but also provide previously unseen opportunities for it.
Thats kinda how I see it. Sorry for digressing comrade
No problem, thank you for the write up! Unsurprising that the state is keeping close tabs on both of those parties.