Afaik, no one's ever done an actual quantitative analysis, but if the US was barred from exploiting the global south tomorrow the standard of living for all US Americans (other than the rich) would plummet. It wouldn't even be a recession, more like all of capitalism just seizing up. iPhones now cost like $5k and no one could afford them anyway. I think it would be orders of magnitude worse than what the Russians had to deal with in the 90s with their "shock therapy". It's truly astounding how dependent we are on exploiting labor and resources in the global south. Like... damn near everything we own was made by people making shit wages and living in conditions that would make US Americans cry after living in them for a few hours.
It pisses me off so much that 99% of US Americans think their lifestyle of cheap, plentiful treats is the ultimate evidence that capitalism works. They say "look how much stuff we have" and compare it to what folks in AES states had. They never think about there are like 100+ countries out there that are every bit as capitalistic as the USA. And yet they are living in crushing poverty. Why is the US a symbol of the success of capitalism but poor countries don't reflect it's weaknesses?
The standard of living that most people in the US enjoy is more thanks to the exploitation of the workers and resources of the global south than it is to some inherent positive quality of capitalism. Take that away and US Americans would have a very different life from what they have come to expect. For the working class in the US, without all that exploitation I don't see how our lives would be materially different from workers in the global south.
And I haven't even gotten into how much of our lifestyle is driven by environmental exploitation! US Americans consume resources at something like 5X what is considered a sustainable rate. Force us to live sustainably and that would be another huge blow to treatflow and the "success" of capitalis.
This is a huge reason why it's so difficult to develop any sort of class consciousness among Americans too. Even among the more clever people I talk to, there's a line that Marxism is outdated because economies no longer operate on farm and factory labor. These people say this while wearing sweatshop shoes and eating strawberries picked in Honduras for $1 per day. Production seems invisible or a thing of the past. I can't even begin explaining to my fellow Americans how capitalism functions without getting into how much we hollow out other countries. We live on their suffering as a kind of pillow to keep us from revolting. Now that capitalism is begining to seize up, there's some resentment building, but it's going to take a lot of international solidarity for Americans to give a shit.
Without communist orgs reorganizing communities and teaching basic theory, Americans will fall to some form of neofascism. Our relationships to the life-sustaining means of production are so distant and the ones we are close to have been invented largely to stop us from even recognizing them for what they are. Uber automates the socialization those means in order to obscure the fact that they still dictate what those relations are. It doesn’t matter if you own your car instead of Uber because it doesn’t matter if you specifically work for Uber, but in aggregate they still retain full dictatorial power over their workers. They’ve basically bypassed a lot of the legally-induced costs of turnover and allow their labor to remain plentiful through pooling. Their servers handle the logistics of that pooling and therefore allow them to retain control.
Commodity fetishism in action!