Afaik, no one's ever done an actual quantitative analysis, but if the US was barred from exploiting the global south tomorrow the standard of living for all US Americans (other than the rich) would plummet. It wouldn't even be a recession, more like all of capitalism just seizing up. iPhones now cost like $5k and no one could afford them anyway. I think it would be orders of magnitude worse than what the Russians had to deal with in the 90s with their "shock therapy". It's truly astounding how dependent we are on exploiting labor and resources in the global south. Like... damn near everything we own was made by people making shit wages and living in conditions that would make US Americans cry after living in them for a few hours.
It pisses me off so much that 99% of US Americans think their lifestyle of cheap, plentiful treats is the ultimate evidence that capitalism works. They say "look how much stuff we have" and compare it to what folks in AES states had. They never think about there are like 100+ countries out there that are every bit as capitalistic as the USA. And yet they are living in crushing poverty. Why is the US a symbol of the success of capitalism but poor countries don't reflect it's weaknesses?
The standard of living that most people in the US enjoy is more thanks to the exploitation of the workers and resources of the global south than it is to some inherent positive quality of capitalism. Take that away and US Americans would have a very different life from what they have come to expect. For the working class in the US, without all that exploitation I don't see how our lives would be materially different from workers in the global south.
And I haven't even gotten into how much of our lifestyle is driven by environmental exploitation! US Americans consume resources at something like 5X what is considered a sustainable rate. Force us to live sustainably and that would be another huge blow to treatflow and the "success" of capitalis.
Personally, I think if we just stopped making new things, we would be fine. I mean to say our overproduction has created more than enough for everyone, but we don't get it to people. Everyone could have their stupid treats if we just mobilized ourselves to get them to everyone (the system wouldn't want that of course, but you know what I mean). We don't need much “new stuff” we have plenty of stuff that just needs to be distributed properly. We have more than enough gadgets, gizmos, widgets, and also sorts of treats but the stupidity of the "the market™" doesn't allow everyone to get their stupid-ass treat.
On the real if we stopped production of like 98% of all things aside from food, power, and other basics we would still have plenty of treats to go around. We really don't need much new anything right now, we got plenty of just about everything for everyone these days. If we stopped overproduction I think it would give everyone else on the planet (and Earth itself) a much-needed breather. We have a problem with overproduction and underdistributing. So much of the America economy is make-believe that actively harms the Global South, which is the wild part to me. We cause so much anguish and poverty over what is for the most part things that aren't even real.
If we stopped exploiting the global south (which we should do for both moral and political reasons) they would have a chance to grow for themselves and make their own economic choices. We could get off their back, and they could stand up straight. We really don't need much new stuff, we just need the stuff we do have to go to the correct places and people, especially the underserved and overexploited.
Don't get me wrong, Americans need to learn to want less and demand significantly fewer treats, but as it is we don't need to make another new treat. We have more treats than people and of course it's not distributed equally/fairly.