Thanks for the writeup, this prospective is actually pretty agreeable, but I still feel like a direct land invasion of Russia doesnt fit NATO's modus operandi. Do you think a color revoltion in Russia might have been their primary goal instead? If NATO baited Russia into war and then used it as propagana against them to sow dissent in the Russian population, that might serve as a decent basis for an insurrection. Seems like it might be a "damned if you do damned if you don't" type situation for the Kremlin.
Actually from what we now know, NATO’s intention was to use the unprecedented sanctions to crush Russia’s economy, which they apparently expected would collapse within weeks. Ukraine’s job was to hold out the Russian advances for a few weeks until the collapsing economy forces Russia to retreat, and for the Russians come back to beg the US/EU to let them sell oil and gas again.
At the same time, we also know that Ukraine had been building up its military since 2014, with the explicit goal of recapturing Donbass and Crimea. If Ukrainian army had reached Donetsk city, it would have been a nightmare for the Russians to retake it again. The civilian casualties could easily go magnitudes of order higher. In this sense, Russia’s pre-emptive strike was almost inevitable if the goal was to prevent the Ukrainians from reaching Donetsk at all cost.
You’re welcome, thank you for not taking it negatively, I didn’t want to come off as argumentative as I said before. As far as direct land invasion I’m pretty sure that if that plan was in the works it would have been at least 30-50 years out. I believe the plan was to win the war against the Donbas with the Ukrainian army, take the resources in the Donbas, make the Donbas the new military supply hub for nato, take Crimea, then eventually start war with Russia. In the meantime color revolution is always on the table. That color revolution would partially look like the sanctions that ended up failing anyways and also maybe terrorism from the ukronazis who would theoretically be occupying the Donbas in this scenario. You could kinda see that taking place with the few units that have crossed into Russian territory proper.
Thanks for the writeup, this prospective is actually pretty agreeable, but I still feel like a direct land invasion of Russia doesnt fit NATO's modus operandi. Do you think a color revoltion in Russia might have been their primary goal instead? If NATO baited Russia into war and then used it as propagana against them to sow dissent in the Russian population, that might serve as a decent basis for an insurrection. Seems like it might be a "damned if you do damned if you don't" type situation for the Kremlin.
Actually from what we now know, NATO’s intention was to use the unprecedented sanctions to crush Russia’s economy, which they apparently expected would collapse within weeks. Ukraine’s job was to hold out the Russian advances for a few weeks until the collapsing economy forces Russia to retreat, and for the Russians come back to beg the US/EU to let them sell oil and gas again.
At the same time, we also know that Ukraine had been building up its military since 2014, with the explicit goal of recapturing Donbass and Crimea. If Ukrainian army had reached Donetsk city, it would have been a nightmare for the Russians to retake it again. The civilian casualties could easily go magnitudes of order higher. In this sense, Russia’s pre-emptive strike was almost inevitable if the goal was to prevent the Ukrainians from reaching Donetsk at all cost.
You’re welcome, thank you for not taking it negatively, I didn’t want to come off as argumentative as I said before. As far as direct land invasion I’m pretty sure that if that plan was in the works it would have been at least 30-50 years out. I believe the plan was to win the war against the Donbas with the Ukrainian army, take the resources in the Donbas, make the Donbas the new military supply hub for nato, take Crimea, then eventually start war with Russia. In the meantime color revolution is always on the table. That color revolution would partially look like the sanctions that ended up failing anyways and also maybe terrorism from the ukronazis who would theoretically be occupying the Donbas in this scenario. You could kinda see that taking place with the few units that have crossed into Russian territory proper.