this question is from the Ukraine megathread but I thought I'd put it here in case it gets buried in the megathread since its an important question @ass (who I guess it won't let me tag)
I want to understand NATO aggression in a more concrete way
What happens to Russia if Ukraine joins NATO, putting NATO on Russia’s border? What are the possible military, economic, social, political consequences?
Also, related, what would motivate Ukraine to want to join NATO? What do they get in the bargain?
NATO membership lights a fire under the powder keg that is Ukraine.
Russia views Eastern Europe like the US views Latin America: they should be able to do anything they want over there with nobody interfering. Having Ukraine in NATO strips it of that status. Article 5 clause, if any NATO country is attacked all member states defend it. Ukraine is where Russian oil passes, where its baltic naval base is, and shares its 2nd biggest land border. It's of strategic importance to Russia and they've gone to great lengths to make sure these among other interests are secured. This involves anything from lobbying to assassinations to now 2 invasions. Imagine pulling stunts like those right over your border, in a scenario where its equipped with serious military hardware and houses thousands of your rival's troops. We already know how trigger happy Americans are about invading and conducting regime change operations of other countries under false/flimsy pretenses and in violation of international law, while nobody challenges it. Who would say a word if America took advantage of another Yuschenko episode (or just fabricated one) and went ahead with regime change mission in Russia? And I say Americans not NATO because at the end of the day, NATO is just an American occupation and supply of military hardware to a country.
NATO on the border allows for NATO to stage equipment right on the border. That means significantly less time to react until bombers, missiles, tanks, etc are outright in Russian territory.
Add in that much of Russia is in the western side of Russia, and and NATO in Ukraine becomes scarily close.
As for why Ukraine wants to be in NATO: generally, it guarantees that Russia can’t fuck with them militarily. Geopolitics 101 for small countries is to use far away powers to balance against nearby great powers. More specifically, the current govt was installed by a western-backed coup. Those in power benefit personally from that approach, either by deepening their own connections, or avoiding getting shot by NATO-aligned militias.