If a person knows 300 people, and both deaths and the friend group are uniformly distributed (ofc a bad assumption), there would actually be a ~63% chance of knowing at least one person who died of covid. The probability of knowing at least one person that dies is 1-((n-1)/n)^n ( ((n-1)/n)^n being the probability that all n people do not die), since n is large it's roughly approximated by (e-1)/e, or 63%
If a person knows 300 people, and both deaths and the friend group are uniformly distributed (ofc a bad assumption), there would actually be a ~63% chance of knowing at least one person who died of covid. The probability of knowing at least one person that dies is 1-((n-1)/n)^n ( ((n-1)/n)^n being the probability that all n people do not die), since n is large it's roughly approximated by (e-1)/e, or 63%
63% = almost everyone
Talk in vague and qualified ways, rarely be wrong