So I actually looked into the original paper for this. Basically they looked at how much homes cost divided by future rent revenue discounted to the current day. Usually this ratio stays constant but the years leading up to 2008 it exploded then crashed back down the usual ratio. Right now it's also high. But who knows, it's hell world so maybe rents will just rise to normalize the ratio again.
So I actually looked into the original paper for this. Basically they looked at how much homes cost divided by future rent revenue discounted to the current day. Usually this ratio stays constant but the years leading up to 2008 it exploded then crashed back down the usual ratio. Right now it's also high. But who knows, it's hell world so maybe rents will just rise to normalize the ratio again.
This is what I think is going to happen. No recession looks the same