:doomjak:

Meanwhile the left could keep Le Pen out of the runoff entirely if they united around Mélenchon, but nah.

  • TheCaconym [any]
    ·
    edit-2
    2 年前

    French here.

    Is there any chance for that ?

    Very little.

    Did that also happen last elections ?

    Admittedly, no. But also, Melenchon's image is far worse than last time. I can also guarantee you the local equivalent of liberals here would massively vote against him in a Macron/Melenchon second round. This is the election with the most guessable outcome I've seen since I've been of voting age - Macron will get reelected.

    Personally I'll vote for Poutou in two days in the first round, an actual communist. And I won't vote in the second round, unless it's Melenchon there (in which case I'll vote, though knowing full well it'll be useless).

    • geikei [none/use name]
      ·
      2 年前

      Vote for whoever but this seems kinda off to me. LePen seems to have a non insignifcant shot against Macron and dismissive certainty like this could very well lead to eating shit at the end. And even if she didnt, wouldnt it benifit the left and the French political lanscape for the convo to not gravitate and be monopolized between fash and neolib-fash debates and talking points and for actual left convo to take central place even if its sure to lose. For the politics and media on the country to not be a coverage of a competion of who can be most racist between right wingers. And even if Melenchon isnt a communist and maybe doesnt have an appealing personality for many his program is still to the left of Corbyn lets say or around there and is competently making his cases, otherwise he wouldnt be hitting the same % again this time (while you say his image is much worse). It only can play a positive role for the left and for young people mobilization (who support Melanchon in their majority) to not have LePen-Macron face off. And also who the fuck knows how the votes could redistribute in the second roung. Melenchon could very well get more votes from Zemmour and LePen etc than projected and make it a closer race. Wouldnt be an enormous surprise

      • TheCaconym [any]
        ·
        edit-2
        2 年前

        And even if she didnt, wouldnt it benifit the left and the French political lanscape for the convo to not gravitate and be monopolized between fash and neolib-fash debates and talking points and for actual left convo to take central place even if its sure to lose

        OK, that point is pretty strong. Melenchon would make for a very interesting between-rounds debate.

        Y'all are going to bully me into switching my vote for him, aren't you. There was even a flyer for him wedged in my flat's door yesterday, so maybe that's a sign (they're canvassing hard in my town since it's what commonly referred to here as a dormitory town, with a large part of it being made of poorer people a generation removed from immigration).

        • geikei [none/use name]
          ·
          2 年前

          I say there are enough good reasons to do it, especially if there is some mommentum. Especially since as i would guess the communist party cares primarily about the legislative elections and ground organizing. I would probably vote for someone like Varoufakis here in Greece in a similar situation if it had a chance to break fash-neolib monopoly in preseidential candidates and political central stage. Especially if the competent fash had a non zero chance of winning

          • TheCaconym [any]
            ·
            edit-2
            2 年前

            Especially since as i would guess the communist party cares primarily about the legislative elections and ground organizing

            They call themselves the anti-capitalist party, but yes. And they freely admit publicly they don't believe capital can be defeated through elections, and they're in it mainly for the platform it offers (they have the same allotted talking time in media as other candidates). Which tends to reinforce your point, really.

    • eduardog3000 [he/him]
      hexagon
      ·
      edit-2
      2 年前

      Why not vote for Melenchon to have an actual chance for a leftist to be in the second round/not let Le Pen get to the second round?

      Voting for a guy with 1% support is infinitely more useless than voting for Melenchon in either round.

      Did that also happen last elections?
      Admittedly, no.

      Except it did. In 2017 if all Poutou and Arthaud voters had voted for Melenchon instead, he would have went to the second round instead of Le Pen.

      • TheCaconym [any]
        ·
        edit-2
        2 年前

        Well, as I said Melenchon getting to the second round would have little impact. And I don't believe Le Pen could go through either. Admittedly I also didn't vote in the second round last time - because I couldn't handle the thought of knowing I helped that ghoul get in power for five years, but I'd have felt pretty fucking stupid, and somewhat guilty, had Le Pen got through, so you're probably right.

        Except it did

        I understood your question to mean: "was the far right vote split this way last time". It wasn't. I'm also still not sure it is that time around, by the way; Le Pen seems to have lost relatively few votes to that shithead Zemmour.

        • eduardog3000 [he/him]
          hexagon
          ·
          edit-2
          2 年前

          Admittedly I also didn’t vote in the second round last time

          That part is fine. If the choice is neolib or right-winger it's not a choice and there's no point in voting.

          But not voting for Melenchon in the first round sounds like a horrible idea.

          I understood your question to mean

          Sorry, wasn't my question, maybe I interpreted it wrong.

          • TheCaconym [any]
            ·
            2 年前

            But not voting for Melenchon in the first round sounds like a horrible idea.

            Fair point. It just feels like pissing in the wind at this point, but who knows.

            Sorry, wasn’t my question, maybe I interpreted it wrong.

            I'm a moron, sorry, I thought you were the OP of the comment I originally responded to.

            • eduardog3000 [he/him]
              hexagon
              ·
              2 年前

              Fair point. It just feels like pissing in the wind at this point, but who knows.

              Better than voting for a guy with 1% support and therefore helping guarantee the second round has no good options.

              • TheCaconym [any]
                ·
                edit-2
                2 年前

                therefore helping guarantee the second round has no good options

                Does it matter if no good option can go through anyway ?

                I'm also pretty tired of this "useful vote" rhetoric - it's a common theme here in France - and quite frankly at this point I tend choose to vote for the candidate I feel the closest to ideologically, regardless of other factors. Though I'll be honest, you've made me doubt that.

    • aqwxcvbnji [none/use name]
      ·
      2 年前

      Melenchon’s image is far worse than

      But he seems to have gotten more votes. How would you explain that?