I don't think that's necessarily true. I think an outsider with enough money and real savvy could mount a serious challenge. Thankfully, he's not eligible, but I genuinely think Musk could mount a serious challenge. He has the money, appeals to idiots on both sides of the aisle, and has the "savvy" to be aware of the (significant) extent to which he can break rules without consequences. That said, I'm not quite sure he would have the political smarts, or be able to keep his shit together for the length of a campaign.
An athlete or other celebrity could similarly make a real run at it--if they have the savvy. I imagine someone like Peyton Manning (ewwww) could do it. Again, lots of money, likely high favorability on both sides of the aisle, appeals to the "heartland" voter, high name recognition.
Arnold Schwarzenegger (again, not eligible, thank goodness) could probably do it.
I could see Mitt Romney making a serious run at it. Maybe pulling it off. (ew ew ew ew ew).
I think basically any candidate who satisfies the following could be in contention:
extremely high name recognition
pro environment
pro LGBT
"pro business" / liked by the banks
pro police
independently wealthy or able to get massive financial backing
pro gun
keeps quiet about abortion / dodges the issue
white man
despite high name recognition, isn't thought of as a "celebrity" first (i.e, not Brad Pitt); basically, not a common tabloid name.
idk... my knee jerk reaction was "not after the divorce", but the average person just isn't in touch with that stuff. multiple divorces and pedo accusations certainly didn't hurt Trump.
the biggest problem for Gates, I think, is that he's gotten smeared too much in the right wing press. the vaxx stuff, plus his image of being a creepy nerd would probably doom him.
But I think bill gates from 15 years ago could absolutely win today.
I don't think the public gives a damn about his divorce. As for people thinking he's a creepy nerd - I have no idea. But Americans truly worship money and he's rich as fuck.
He’s gotten smeared too much in the right wing press.
Oops. This would be a 3rd party dealbreaker. How could I forget all about that?
for the last part, what I mean is that I think the 58% of respondents are not centrists or moderates or whatever. I think they are disaffected people across the political spectrum.
I think an independent wins by being the harm reduction candidate for the greatest number of people across the board. hence, pro guns, which leftists agree with and only a small percentage of libs would rank in their top five most important issues--but would be a deal breaker for many on the right. avoid abortion, which is solidly a wedge issue across the political spectrum. pro LGBT, which is must for most people to the left of center, and isn't a deal breaker for much of the right. And so on.
now, generally, favorability is a better predictor of election outcomes than unfavorability--BUT, that wasn't the case in the last presidential election, and I think the celebrity status of this theoretical candidate would lead to high favorability as well.
I don't pay attention to celebrities or famous people so the only name that comes to mind for me is Oprah. Has she ever done or said anything controversial? And I assume that although democrats like (or love) her - they do so based on a sense that she's one of them even though she's probably been very, very careful never to be too political.
Theoretically speaking - is there anybody else like her?
Some people with crazy levels of charisma can have surprising success but I have no idea at all what right-wingers think of her. And Americans now treat their politics as though they are rabid cultists. I wonder what the Cult of the GOP truly thinks of her. Not what they would say to a pollster but what they say to each other when they commiserate.
I don't think that's necessarily true. I think an outsider with enough money and real savvy could mount a serious challenge. Thankfully, he's not eligible, but I genuinely think Musk could mount a serious challenge. He has the money, appeals to idiots on both sides of the aisle, and has the "savvy" to be aware of the (significant) extent to which he can break rules without consequences. That said, I'm not quite sure he would have the political smarts, or be able to keep his shit together for the length of a campaign.
An athlete or other celebrity could similarly make a real run at it--if they have the savvy. I imagine someone like Peyton Manning (ewwww) could do it. Again, lots of money, likely high favorability on both sides of the aisle, appeals to the "heartland" voter, high name recognition.
Arnold Schwarzenegger (again, not eligible, thank goodness) could probably do it.
I could see Mitt Romney making a serious run at it. Maybe pulling it off. (ew ew ew ew ew).
I think basically any candidate who satisfies the following could be in contention:
So - Bill Gates?
idk... my knee jerk reaction was "not after the divorce", but the average person just isn't in touch with that stuff. multiple divorces and pedo accusations certainly didn't hurt Trump.
the biggest problem for Gates, I think, is that he's gotten smeared too much in the right wing press. the vaxx stuff, plus his image of being a creepy nerd would probably doom him.
But I think bill gates from 15 years ago could absolutely win today.
I don't think the public gives a damn about his divorce. As for people thinking he's a creepy nerd - I have no idea. But Americans truly worship money and he's rich as fuck.
Oops. This would be a 3rd party dealbreaker. How could I forget all about that?
for the last part, what I mean is that I think the 58% of respondents are not centrists or moderates or whatever. I think they are disaffected people across the political spectrum.
I think an independent wins by being the harm reduction candidate for the greatest number of people across the board. hence, pro guns, which leftists agree with and only a small percentage of libs would rank in their top five most important issues--but would be a deal breaker for many on the right. avoid abortion, which is solidly a wedge issue across the political spectrum. pro LGBT, which is must for most people to the left of center, and isn't a deal breaker for much of the right. And so on.
now, generally, favorability is a better predictor of election outcomes than unfavorability--BUT, that wasn't the case in the last presidential election, and I think the celebrity status of this theoretical candidate would lead to high favorability as well.
I don't pay attention to celebrities or famous people so the only name that comes to mind for me is Oprah. Has she ever done or said anything controversial? And I assume that although democrats like (or love) her - they do so based on a sense that she's one of them even though she's probably been very, very careful never to be too political.
Theoretically speaking - is there anybody else like her?
I think America is too sexist and racist for her to win on an independent ticket. she could maybe win as a Democrat though.
Some people with crazy levels of charisma can have surprising success but I have no idea at all what right-wingers think of her. And Americans now treat their politics as though they are rabid cultists. I wonder what the Cult of the GOP truly thinks of her. Not what they would say to a pollster but what they say to each other when they commiserate.