Thanks for sharing that chart, cool to see. I admit I am prone to hyperbole, but it does seem to be accelerating this year - this is from March:
Evidence comes in a report by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage, which found that over three days, hedge-fund clients unwound risk at the fastest rate in three months in cumulative dollar terms. At the same time, flows tracked by JPMorgan Chase & Co. showed retail traders bought $4.1 billion in the week through Tuesday, with money sent to S&P 500-linked ETFs more than 2 standard deviations above the 12-month average.
…
Amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, trepidation is building among pros. Hedge funds, which cut their equity exposure to the lowest level in almost two years in February, kept trimming into the new month. On Wednesday, when the S&P 500 rallied almost 2%, clients tracked by Goldman Sachs cut long positions and covered shorts.
Tangentially related, but insider buying dropped off a cliff in October last year.
I still hear people I work with talking about buying the dip in this environment. It’s crazy to me.
I hold a boring Bogleheads style allocation for my small IRA, and I am finding it very very difficult not to move it to cash, despite all of the theory behind not doing that.
Thanks comrade! If you have a link to that report I’d be super interested to read it.
I spoke with an advisor at Vanguard yesterday, and it was an interesting conversation. They don’t see interest rates or inflation coming down anywhere near the last 20 years in the foreseeable future. As such, they’re now advising people that the 4% rule for retirement (and hence calculating the size of a required nest egg) is changed, and they now recommend a withdrawal rate of 2.9%, which is a huge jump that I’ve not seen talked about elsewhere. They did a good job of talking me down from cashing out, which I still don’t know if is a good thing or not lol. I spend too much time looking at bearish fintwitter and the catastrophising there is pretty :doomer:
Definitely working on gradually rotating my emergency funds into Series I bonds, good shout. One can’t help but feel I’m going to need them in the next 12-24 months….
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Thanks for sharing that chart, cool to see. I admit I am prone to hyperbole, but it does seem to be accelerating this year - this is from March:
Tangentially related, but insider buying dropped off a cliff in October last year.
I still hear people I work with talking about buying the dip in this environment. It’s crazy to me.
I hold a boring Bogleheads style allocation for my small IRA, and I am finding it very very difficult not to move it to cash, despite all of the theory behind not doing that.
deleted by creator
Thanks comrade! If you have a link to that report I’d be super interested to read it.
I spoke with an advisor at Vanguard yesterday, and it was an interesting conversation. They don’t see interest rates or inflation coming down anywhere near the last 20 years in the foreseeable future. As such, they’re now advising people that the 4% rule for retirement (and hence calculating the size of a required nest egg) is changed, and they now recommend a withdrawal rate of 2.9%, which is a huge jump that I’ve not seen talked about elsewhere. They did a good job of talking me down from cashing out, which I still don’t know if is a good thing or not lol. I spend too much time looking at bearish fintwitter and the catastrophising there is pretty :doomer:
Definitely working on gradually rotating my emergency funds into Series I bonds, good shout. One can’t help but feel I’m going to need them in the next 12-24 months….