That article says something different, which is that the predominant variant in Wuhan at the time of the study wasn't the presumed earlier variant, but a later one. Predominant means there are also other variants there, including the presumed earlier variant.
This is consistent with an origin in China, under the assumption that there was a larger infected population there, so initial spread outside of China would look like the early variant (small numbers of infected outside of China means slower evolution in those places) and the most likely origin of new variants would be the largest infected population, probably at the "source".
Strange assumption considering that are quite a bit of studies examining wastewater testing showing covid was in Europe early 2019. Also consider that China's healthcare system is better at detecting weird flu-like illnesses because they had to deal with SARS. I can easily imagine the US healthcare system not acknowledging it or finding out about it for years.
I'll entertain a coverup possibility but it seems unlikely since the first official announcement of anything covid-like was done by their CDC. Unless China are masters at propaganda (they aren't they suck at it), their initial response seemed to show that covid was a new thing there.
Strange assumption considering that are quite a bit of studies examining wastewater testing showing covid was in Europe early 2019.
It's the assumption of the paper... which doesn't say what the prior comment claimed.
And the study claiming that early is transmission just had one (1) positive PCR amplification, which is unfortunately easy to get false positives for - and other labs also got false positives for tests on similar wastewater samples (and gaps in positivity - earlier samples positive, later negative, then positive again) trying to do the same thing. At least, unless one wants to believe that SARS-CoV-2 was hopping around Europe in 2017. But there are a number of overlapping tests for antibodies in Europe from late 2019 (but still before being discovered in Wuhan) that are more convincing.
Also consider that China’s healthcare system is better at detecting weird flu-like illnesses because they had to deal with SARS.
Could be. I wouldn't know how to compare on this exact thing, particularly since the now-famous first reporter of COVID had to lobby for weeks to get it recognized by local officials and the government started making changes to how it handles such reports as a result. It wasn't recognized via some highly efficient systemic process, but by the advocacy of a relatively small number of people + increasing cases rolling in with severe illness. She got the hero treatment in China.
I can easily imagine the US healthcare system not acknowledging it or finding out about it for years.
Well yeah the US healthcare system is disorganized garbage. You can see it doing a shit job at even half-assedly monitoring monkeypox right this second, and they had a full heads-up on that just like they did with COVID.
I’ll entertain a coverup possibility but it seems unlikely since the first official announcement of anything covid-like was done by their CDC. Unless China are masters at propaganda (they aren’t they suck at it), their initial response seemed to show that covid was a new thing there.
A cover-up by China is super unlikely given how it all played out. The only thing anyone can point to is that delay I mentioned, which is very small in the grand scheme of things. Perfectly in line with a bureaucracy that couldn't respond to this kind of report as fast as it probably can now and nothing that looks like an active attempt to suppress. Well I guess there was that one nerd that prematurely called it SARS and was firmly ordered to STFU so as not to cause a panic based on guesswork, which is also a really dumb way to do a cover-up, lol, since they let him keep talking to the press shortly after.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200410111500/https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins
Variant at Wuhan was newer than the one found in Europe.
That article says something different, which is that the predominant variant in Wuhan at the time of the study wasn't the presumed earlier variant, but a later one. Predominant means there are also other variants there, including the presumed earlier variant.
This is consistent with an origin in China, under the assumption that there was a larger infected population there, so initial spread outside of China would look like the early variant (small numbers of infected outside of China means slower evolution in those places) and the most likely origin of new variants would be the largest infected population, probably at the "source".
Strange assumption considering that are quite a bit of studies examining wastewater testing showing covid was in Europe early 2019. Also consider that China's healthcare system is better at detecting weird flu-like illnesses because they had to deal with SARS. I can easily imagine the US healthcare system not acknowledging it or finding out about it for years.
I'll entertain a coverup possibility but it seems unlikely since the first official announcement of anything covid-like was done by their CDC. Unless China are masters at propaganda (they aren't they suck at it), their initial response seemed to show that covid was a new thing there.
It's the assumption of the paper... which doesn't say what the prior comment claimed.
And the study claiming that early is transmission just had one (1) positive PCR amplification, which is unfortunately easy to get false positives for - and other labs also got false positives for tests on similar wastewater samples (and gaps in positivity - earlier samples positive, later negative, then positive again) trying to do the same thing. At least, unless one wants to believe that SARS-CoV-2 was hopping around Europe in 2017. But there are a number of overlapping tests for antibodies in Europe from late 2019 (but still before being discovered in Wuhan) that are more convincing.
Could be. I wouldn't know how to compare on this exact thing, particularly since the now-famous first reporter of COVID had to lobby for weeks to get it recognized by local officials and the government started making changes to how it handles such reports as a result. It wasn't recognized via some highly efficient systemic process, but by the advocacy of a relatively small number of people + increasing cases rolling in with severe illness. She got the hero treatment in China.
Well yeah the US healthcare system is disorganized garbage. You can see it doing a shit job at even half-assedly monitoring monkeypox right this second, and they had a full heads-up on that just like they did with COVID.
A cover-up by China is super unlikely given how it all played out. The only thing anyone can point to is that delay I mentioned, which is very small in the grand scheme of things. Perfectly in line with a bureaucracy that couldn't respond to this kind of report as fast as it probably can now and nothing that looks like an active attempt to suppress. Well I guess there was that one nerd that prematurely called it SARS and was firmly ordered to STFU so as not to cause a panic based on guesswork, which is also a really dumb way to do a cover-up, lol, since they let him keep talking to the press shortly after.
Those Italian studies are complete dogshit. Unreviewed preprints from nobodies.
Completely and utterly contrary to the actual genomic data.