the DPA guy suggested China may take one or more of Taiwan's small island military bases which would be relatively limited in scope and a quick easy "win" for China. It seems pretty plausible to me

dont know how we like or dont like the guy this week but what do you think of this thread and the possibility of the DPP rather than america forcing China's hand (tho its treating the US as noticibly more level headed than it might be)

https://twitter.com/notXiangyu/status/1554539713385701377

1. The DPP hasn't had any policy successes since Tsai's election in 2016. All it has going for it politically is its political strategy of building on a "distinct" Taiwanese identity to make the youth feel good about being Taiwanese with little to back it.

2. Pelosi's visit is part of the DPP's strategy to make Taiwan seem more visible. The DPP and Tsai also control much of the media at this point, and Tsai has partnerships with various internet influencers, forming a very deep echo chamber that's not grounded in reality.

3. The only thing Taiwan has going for it economically right now is TSMC. It's used it to its advantage, causing chip shortages to gain political leverage. This only works in the short term, though. Both mainland China and the US are investing in homegrown chipmaking tech.

4. The US is investing $100 billion and mainland China $52 billion. By the next election in 2024, TSMC will lose its monopoly on chip manufacturing. This puts Taiwan in a situation like Saudi Arabia if oil becomes $10 per barrel on the international market.

5. This means a recession will hit when the new leader is elected, and if that new leader is Lai Ching-te, who represents a more hardline faction of the DPP (remember, Tsai is a moderate), he will have to deal with an economically desperate constituent.

6. And remember, the only thing DPP has going for it is getting the youth to circlejerk over their identity. Pelosi's already visited. Another high level visit like Pelosi's won't cause the same level of excitement among the baizuo liberals (the DPP's ideological footsoldiers)

7. What does he have left? Well referendums are called on odd years. He coasts through his first year in office, and in 2025, his party potentially calls an independence referendum to abolish the "Republic of China" and replace it with a "Republic of Taiwan."

8. Of course, such a move will be met with a response from mainland China, and forceful reunification will happen. It's playing with fire, but the DPP has successfully convinced its baizuo footsoldiers that daddy America will come in to save the day.

9. This cannot be further from the truth, however, and military experts in the US say the same. The closest aircraft carriers can get to China without getting attacked by the PLA is 1000 nautical miles. Their missiles can currently only fly 800. See the problem?

10. Even if the US commits itself to intervention, it cannot win. And will the US commit itself to intervention? Look at how the US hung its Ukrainian puppets out to dry.

11. According to military assessments by top US military experts, in all scenarios short of nuclear war, China can reunify the country by force without a problem. So why hasn't the CPC done so? The answer is simple: Chinese people do not wish to kill Chinese people.

12. Not to mention, reunification under such a scenario, while doable, will mean a much more difficult transition period for the Taiwanese people, and it'll make Taiwan even more volatile than it already is.

13. This does not benefit the Chinese people on either side of the strait at all, but it does benefit the imperialists who seek to use Taiwan to cause destabilization in the rest of China. Look at Hong Kong in 2019.

14. The job at hand right now is to lay out the economic and political realities of how things will turn out if the DPP is allowed to continue with its insanity, enabled by its brainwashed radlib footsoldiers.

15. Common folks in Taiwan see this reality, but their voices are being repressed "democratically." Look at the series of laws the DPP has passed, eroding the very same liberal democracy it fought for in the 1980s.

China may respond militarlily to Taiwan, probably not to the US. I don't think we're quite at the point where the US would start a nuclear war over Taiwan yet. We're getting there, but not quite yet.

Isn't the "One China" policy integral to US trade agreements? Is there any reason China wouldn't halt exports over this?

I think China will respond militarily

Against whom? We're a bit far from China straight opening fire on US navy or aircraft. And I don't see any proxies in the region who would be worth the conflict. This isn't like Ukraine, where you've got a sizable chunk of Russian-aligned nationalists sitting right on your border that you can just step in and annex. China's already either allied with or a major business partner of all of its neighbors.

If anything, I might see them try some kind of Cuba-style embargo of Taiwan. But that would have a comparative impact on public sentiment, driving the island that much farther away from the Chinese political and cultural sphere.

China has limited time window to respond to show the US that they cannot antagonize China over the Taiwan issue at their whims.

So long as the US and Taipei are allies, the US absolutely can. What Beijing needs is a large anti-colonial movement in Taiwan, akin to what they had in Hong Kong. And they're decades away from anything close to that kind of political hegemony. This is just going to be an indignity they'll have to endure, until Pelosi (or her Republican replacement) trips over their own balls trying to Own The CCP and turns public sentiment against the US.