Biden is losing in polls at around the margin of voters who are deeply invested in what's going on with Gaza. He's lost the support of virtually every Muslim in America, and that's important in states with a lot of Muslims like Michigan and Minnesota. He's rapidly losing support among younger people, who are also the ones most interested in abortion rights.

I actually do think Biden may win, but my gut says it'll be a very funny situation where he wins the electoral college while losing the popular vote.