Its trading $10 (40%) off its 2014 high of $14/share. The $1-2 valuation during its brush with bankruptcy was (not unjustifiably) seen as artificially low. A company with $1B in revenue enjoying an $8B market cap isn't unheard of, even if it is hemorrhaging $100M/year. And - baring another internet hysteria sponsored surge - it'll likely bleed out over the next five years like a normal failing company would.
But again, its an exception, not a rule.
I’m pretty confident about USDC, I think the only way I’ll get popped is if Eth/BTC/etc actually goes to 0 and kills Coinbase (can’t get rid of all price risk).
They don't need to go to zero. They just need to slip below the point at which you can reliably liquidate. That will set off a panic that kills the stablecoin. These vehicles don't function when everyone tries to exit them at once precisely because the brokerages are futzing with their cash reserves on risky investments so often. Maybe Coinbase really is a This One Is Different case. But... :doubt:
what I’m actually interested in is decentralized stuff where reading the code is enough to tell you 80% of whether it’s good
They just need to slip below the point at which you can reliably liquidate.
TL;DR I give Coinbase the "this one is different". Think that the NY attorney general and SEC will continue keeping them in line. The only thing that differentiates them from other CEXes is that they're not sketchy; to keep that they've done stuff like shutting down margin trading when the CFTC said rather than just moving jurisdictions. Based on this I think that (1) they're not commingling with Circle (2) their statements are accurate, e.g..
sigh Well, good luck with that.
I write Solidity for a living, would not be so confident if I hadn't been able to compare my work to that of auditors.
Its trading $10 (40%) off its 2014 high of $14/share. The $1-2 valuation during its brush with bankruptcy was (not unjustifiably) seen as artificially low. A company with $1B in revenue enjoying an $8B market cap isn't unheard of, even if it is hemorrhaging $100M/year. And - baring another internet hysteria sponsored surge - it'll likely bleed out over the next five years like a normal failing company would.
But again, its an exception, not a rule.
They don't need to go to zero. They just need to slip below the point at which you can reliably liquidate. That will set off a panic that kills the stablecoin. These vehicles don't function when everyone tries to exit them at once precisely because the brokerages are futzing with their cash reserves on risky investments so often. Maybe Coinbase really is a This One Is Different case. But... :doubt:
sigh Well, good luck with that.
TL;DR I give Coinbase the "this one is different". Think that the NY attorney general and SEC will continue keeping them in line. The only thing that differentiates them from other CEXes is that they're not sketchy; to keep that they've done stuff like shutting down margin trading when the CFTC said rather than just moving jurisdictions. Based on this I think that (1) they're not commingling with Circle (2) their statements are accurate, e.g..
I write Solidity for a living, would not be so confident if I hadn't been able to compare my work to that of auditors.