The problem with a lot of American political analysis is that it underestimates how truly stupid and insanely grasping some pols are.
I think #1 is still possible because McCarthy is a a total moron. He might give the holdouts an insane amount of power with procedures that somehow give them power over him too. So - he becomes speaker and then they royally fuck him over somehow.
Also - if McCarthy is desperate - he'll be a desperate total total moron. Maybe #3 is possible too.
Honestly my big concern is that long term this will fracture the republican party with the more classical republican wing being supported by the democrats while the maga fash side splitting and effectively being the final say in passing bills or whatever. I think this moment tells Lauren bobert and gaetz that they do not have enough support from the rest of the party and must continue to support trump and his politics even after he's out of the picture
It's a weird situation. To become the speaker - McCarthy must do one of two things...
Get the hardliners to vote for him. But how? They said they'd never vote for him. They seem to truly hate him.
or
Get some dem support without losing GOP votes due to outrage. That's 100% impossible not only for McCarthy but for anybody.
The funniest outcome is Scorpion and the Frog. McCarthy changes the parliamentary rules so much that he empowers the hardliners with the ability to fire him at will, he becomes speaker, and in a few months they fire his ass just because they can.
Here's an analysis...
The problem with a lot of American political analysis is that it underestimates how truly stupid and insanely grasping some pols are.
I think #1 is still possible because McCarthy is a a total moron. He might give the holdouts an insane amount of power with procedures that somehow give them power over him too. So - he becomes speaker and then they royally fuck him over somehow.
Also - if McCarthy is desperate - he'll be a desperate total total moron. Maybe #3 is possible too.
Honestly my big concern is that long term this will fracture the republican party with the more classical republican wing being supported by the democrats while the maga fash side splitting and effectively being the final say in passing bills or whatever. I think this moment tells Lauren bobert and gaetz that they do not have enough support from the rest of the party and must continue to support trump and his politics even after he's out of the picture
It's a weird situation. To become the speaker - McCarthy must do one of two things...
or
The funniest outcome is Scorpion and the Frog. McCarthy changes the parliamentary rules so much that he empowers the hardliners with the ability to fire him at will, he becomes speaker, and in a few months they fire his ass just because they can.