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- cross-posted to:
- news
- worldnews@lemmy.ml
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We will see a temporarily stall in the dedollarization process because EU is cannibalizing itself to keep the dollar afloat, by buying expensive US energy + increasing military spending, but they can't hide that their living standards are crumbling by the day.
The EU oligarchs would gladly sacrifice their countries and cause yet another war in their territories to keep this shit going.
That makes sense, the Euro will likely crash as EU economy goes into a recession and European oligarchs will accelerate moving their assets into US. This will likely also be the time we'll see definitive blocs forming around G7 and BRICS.
If the Europeans oligarchs move their assets into the US, what would that mean to the EU working class? Will that push them to finally antagonize and oppose their capitalist class?
I know that my questions may be speculative but it is an interesting scenario to think about.
The EU working class concessions are slowly disappearing and their living conditions are worsening by the day. Unfortunately, the ruling class has managed to channel their resentment towards immigrants and people abroad, there is a big rise in the far-right parties in every single EU country.
The communist working class movement in the West is toothless, the EU working class is more likely to throw themselves as cannon fodder (again) in a war against the global south than to fight their oligarchy.
That's going to be the big question. How will the workers in Europe react to their standard of living being eroded and their social safety net yanked away. Europe is headed for mass austerity that will be justified with the threat of the asiatic hordes in the east. Will the fear of Russia and China be enough to keep Europeans in line?
I don't see how the unfounded fears of Russia and China can keep Europe (and the rest of the west, but Europe in particular) in line. Unlike the 1930s, they can't channel all that demagoguery to anything substantial for fear of MAD after all.
All that societal pressure will just keep simmering, with mass austerity making it all worse, until something explodes IMO. As a Canadian, it certainly seems like that's how things will go here as well. For Europe, hell if I know how it'll go, but I expect we'll either see the EU begin falling apart in a very real sense in the future, and/or start cracking down on Euroskeptics of all stripes in an attempt to hold itself together and consolidate power within the sinking ship.
That's my impression as well, there is too much internal division within western societies now, and we're already starting to see a backlash against liberalism building. As the material conditions continue to deteriorate, there's going to be more and more civil unrest.
I think it's better to look at it in the bigger picture. We all know "Marx's Double-Edged Law"; it is being applied in action here. I think it's interesting at this point in time the capitalists of the United States are considering the sale of it's domestic steel while the E.U oligarchs are beginning to cannibalize their own assets by purchasing increasingly leveraged U.S assets under the auspice of war.
It'll be still a long time before they hit bedrock; but the stones are beginning to show.
Do you have a reference for Marx 's double edged law? That's a new concept got for me.
I'd guess Tendency of the rate of profit to fall but I'm not sure either.
Edit: after some cursory googling, I believe I'm correct.
You are correct. That is the slang term. It sounds cooler and makes me picture Mecha-Marx.
As dedollarization advnces, what are the geopolitical effects going to be?
Increased US sponsored terrorism to strong arm countries, coup unaligned countries and prop up pro-US puppets (see Milei or Noboa) to keep dollar influence and force them to take anti-China stances.
The US will continue its strategy of drawing a big line between "good" countries and "bad" countries. Then it will eat the "good" countries while projecting blame at the "bad" countries.
I think one big effect is going to be US economy shrinking, and with that we'll see US ability to project power fade as well. I expect this will be a self reinforcing phenomenon, because the weaker US becomes the more countries will slip out from under its thumb.
This is an old article. I asked the Marxist economist Michael Roberts for the next recession blog about it, but he said IMF numbers do not confirm what is being said here, so cautious with the optimism.
I expect that the trend is irreversible now that BRICS is a bigger economy. Everybody understands the risks of using the dollar, but there simply wasn't an alternative before. What's most likely to happen is that we'll have two major economic blocs around BRICS and G7, with the latter being dollar based.
Me too, I just hope to see the USD dethroned during my lifetime. If Michael Hudson is right, the entire US military machine that runs on the fact USD is the global reserve currency, would crumble with it.
I do think he's correct there. The ability to issue unlimited currency is premised on constant demand for the dollar. Once that demand starts dropping, then dollar based economy starts shrinking.
