Obviously the pandemic is not currently over and will not be in the foreseeable future. For this discussion, assume that the actual end of the pandemic would be when there is no more elevated risk of sickness/disabling relative to the norm before COVID.
The world has decided on a vaccine-only strategy where a majority of the populace does not get vaccinated which isn't going to do anything. The concept of herd immunity through "natural infection" is even less effective, as we can see with the many cases of reinfection. Even something as mild as mask mandates are non-viable in the US.
So, assuming no mitigations are implemented again... how does the pandemic actually end? Is it just gambling on eventually getting a mild strain that actually becomes "a bad flu"? Do we have any historical data on what kind of timeframe we can expect here?
Or is it just going to be like this forever?
I think there is a lot to learn from AIDS activism in South Africa, since the South African state basically approached HIV in much of the late 90s-2000s in the same way most western countries have been addressing COVID. The main tactics used were a mix of mass education on a grass roots level, direct action against ruling institutions, legalism, and etc. This lead to better medical infrastructure for dealing with HIV and more accessible treatment options for working class people there, as well the end of the state-lead disinformation campaign.
I think since COVID is an airborne virus, and because many western states are taking advantage of people's ableist tendencies to have them believe that they are somehow "immune" to its worst effects, I think more anti-ableism stuff targeted towards anti-maskers broadly could have use too. From what I have seen, shit that is confrontational and hostile to anti-masking stuff has gotten some peeps to mask up again due to social pressure from propaganda and call outs. That more militant praxis is not exactly great if you are trying to base build, but I also believe that not all effective political struggle has to involve base building.
I think the goal should be to have more air ventilation infrastructure around and to change the broader culture so that masking becomes way more prevalent again; this will make the virus less of an issue for people's daily lives. I think the lessons from AIDS activism are potentially useful for both goals. I don't think any states need to be seized or smashed to cause these changes to take place, these goals can be reached through grass roots struggle changing the broader culture.
I think you're probably right about long-term grassroots organizing, which is unfortunate given how long the timeline is on that site. If it takes 20 years of activism to get the necessary changes, how many people will even be left fully able-bodied?
I'm not sure of the comparison to HIV/AIDS specifically, though, given that the changes in behavior and PPE required to mitigate the spread of the two diseases is pretty drastically different, which will necessitate greater lifestyle changes. There is no safe way to eat indoors in a restaurant while preventing COVID infection, for instance. EDIT: Also obviously the public perception that COVID is acceptable is a massive hurdle when compared with the perception of HIV/AIDS (generally extremely negative).
I think something that might help us, and its honestly fucked up, is that a ton of people are going to be completely fucked up by COVID in the next year or two which could help change public perception on the virus or at least make more people sympathetic to a grass roots movement pushing for broader COVID safety (even if bourgeoisie media does not reflect it).
The HIV/AIDS comparison is more about pointing to past organizing efforts around a virus, but your absolutely right that we are dealing with a different beast regarding COVID.
There has definitely been some local COVID activism going on where I am at. While it is definitely in its early days I am already seeing it making some headway, even if the positive change is currently minimal. The most effective stuff I have noticed has been efforts distributing free masks or Corsi rosenthal boxes, and propaganda campaigns that either educate people on the virus or basically dunk on anti-maskers. The latter has actually been more effective than expected, but I live in a city with a lot of libs whom are pretty easy to sway on that stuff via dunking.
I'm not so sure, honestly. Two of my coworkers probably have long covid (general fatigue to the point that one of them has given up his old hobby of MMA after getting COVID a year ago) and their reaction when asked about it was essentially "Well what're you gonna do? We have to go back to normal. :grillman:" Maybe the numbers will tell.
Glad to hear some people are at least getting the ball rolling; there's nothing near me.
Who knows may be you can be the one that starts the COVID safety organizing effort in your area. All the stuff I mentioned are done with pretty small crews, and they have been effective for their size.