Obviously the pandemic is not currently over and will not be in the foreseeable future. For this discussion, assume that the actual end of the pandemic would be when there is no more elevated risk of sickness/disabling relative to the norm before COVID.

The world has decided on a vaccine-only strategy where a majority of the populace does not get vaccinated which isn't going to do anything. The concept of herd immunity through "natural infection" is even less effective, as we can see with the many cases of reinfection. Even something as mild as mask mandates are non-viable in the US.

So, assuming no mitigations are implemented again... how does the pandemic actually end? Is it just gambling on eventually getting a mild strain that actually becomes "a bad flu"? Do we have any historical data on what kind of timeframe we can expect here?

Or is it just going to be like this forever?

  • macabrett
    ·
    2 years ago

    I really don't see a path to the end without governments taking it seriously, doing contact tracing, expanding sick time available, and upgrading ventilation pretty much everywhere. We should be masking heavily during that last part, but we're well past getting people to do that.

    So in the context of your question where we assume governments don't do the above, I don't think it ends.