From the Russian perspective, they seem to view NATO encroachment into Ukraine as an existential threat to their survival. IMO they will not cease hostilities until their objective of de-militarising and de-nazifying Ukraine are complete.

On the other hand, the West continues to escalate the situation and doesn't appear to care about Russian motives whatsoever.

I don't see this ending any time soon; neither side appears to care for the motives of the other and so far show no signs of backing down.

Will the West ultimately accept a Ukrainian defeat if that's what it comes to, or if that's what it takes to avert nuclear holocaust?

What do you think?

  • culpritus [any]
    ·
    edit-2
    2 years ago

    This is mostly an economic war that happens to be a real war in Ukraine. Capital wants to devour value via the path of least resistance for the highest profits, and that calculation has brought capital's ravenous appetite into the periphery of the imperialist core.

    I think the comparison I'm starting to make in my head is that Ukraine 2014 was the start of a similar process to Operation Condor in Latin America but in EU / NATO. The results of Operation Condor and other interventions in LA was getting nations under the thumb of US/western capital via things like IMF loans and reducing worker protections, etc. This was a long process that started with overthrowing or destabilizing nascent socialist or leftish governments. Much like the quote about fascism being imperialism turned inward, I think EU / NATO countries are the current layer being cannibalized by capital to maintain the financial empire. So you have this long process of escalating tensions in Ukraine to a breaking point in 2014, which caused the start of a civil war that was barely reported on in the west. EU / NATO are the path of least resistance because they are essentially easy/cheap marks currently. There's been a bit of question of the special relationship starting to bubble up, but the Ukraine war really makes that pretty untenable for much of EU / NATO conveniently.

    While there are differences at play on the surface due to a real war and invasion occurring between bordering nations, that's actually a good thing for the interest of capital seeking to feast on the EU ultimately. I'm waiting to see more of a similar process to occur in the UK after Brexit. I think capital is a bit wary to invest there yet because the bottom hasn't been approached yet.

    So to finally respond to your question, I think there are ways that BRICS and the realignment of the global financial order can certainly defuse this bomb without an explicit defeat of the whole of Ukraine. This is why Putin meeting with the other BRICS leaders is actually a positive sign in many ways. The big concern for me is if EU generally believes the Ukraine / NATO propaganda, they might start a larger war out of hubris. So far that hasn't happened entirely, but things are definitely moving in that direction. This is why the propaganda about RF forces being depraved and Putin being some arch villain are so dangerous. It can and likely will lead to EU nations drinking the koolaid by instigating a broader conflict. With what happened to those pipelines, it really highlights the restraint Russia has been operating under so far. And it also shows how economic and materialist this conflict really is deep down.