The Ukrainians are now admitting that the hammer is about to fall on them
The UA Defence Minister (Reznikov) who gave that quote about a 500k strong spring offensive has a poor track record of telling the truth. He recently claimed that Russia was covertly launching a second wave of mobilization, despite no such thing happening, and is often in the news hyping up the threat of Russian forces as a justification for why Ukraine needs more western weapons.
500 thousand is going to be the approximate number of all Russian forces deployed to Ukraine after all conscripts are trained, and there is no way all of them are going to launch an attack at once. Both because it'd be stupid and because the actual number of soldiers available for any offensive will be significantly lower than the total given the need to maintain reserves and defend.
Maybe the spring will bring a Russian capture of Bahkmut and further gains in the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk direction, but most accounts of the ongoing fighting makes it seem more likely that we'll see a continuation of the World War 1 style trench warfare than anything like an Operation Bagration. Regardless, if Russian leadership think the strategic defeat of the Ukrainian Army is imminent their relatively modest and conciliatory statements regarding peace don't show it.
Destroying the Ukrainian army and inducing their government into unconditional surrendering is by far and away the most humiliating outcome for the west and beneficial for Russia. If Russia had the capacity to do that in the next few months, I can't see any reason why they wouldn't as I don't think the prospects of blowing up a few Leopards and F-16s in the future is worth continuing a costly and destructive war.
Destroying the Ukrainian army and inducing their government into unconditional surrendering is by far and away the most humiliating outcome for the west and beneficial for Russia..
It really isn't. Say tomorrow the Russians just annihilate the Ukrainian army and waltz into Kiev. Congratulations, you've won a decades long insurgency!
The UA Defence Minister (Reznikov) who gave that quote about a 500k strong spring offensive has a poor track record of telling the truth. He recently claimed that Russia was covertly launching a second wave of mobilization, despite no such thing happening, and is often in the news hyping up the threat of Russian forces as a justification for why Ukraine needs more western weapons.
500 thousand is going to be the approximate number of all Russian forces deployed to Ukraine after all conscripts are trained, and there is no way all of them are going to launch an attack at once. Both because it'd be stupid and because the actual number of soldiers available for any offensive will be significantly lower than the total given the need to maintain reserves and defend.
Maybe the spring will bring a Russian capture of Bahkmut and further gains in the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk direction, but most accounts of the ongoing fighting makes it seem more likely that we'll see a continuation of the World War 1 style trench warfare than anything like an Operation Bagration. Regardless, if Russian leadership think the strategic defeat of the Ukrainian Army is imminent their relatively modest and conciliatory statements regarding peace don't show it.
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Destroying the Ukrainian army and inducing their government into unconditional surrendering is by far and away the most humiliating outcome for the west and beneficial for Russia. If Russia had the capacity to do that in the next few months, I can't see any reason why they wouldn't as I don't think the prospects of blowing up a few Leopards and F-16s in the future is worth continuing a costly and destructive war.
deleted by creator
It really isn't. Say tomorrow the Russians just annihilate the Ukrainian army and waltz into Kiev. Congratulations, you've won a decades long insurgency!