So I came across this Jordan Peterson clip from some podcast where he says just the stupidest things imaginable. You don't have to watch it, I will be quoting it here.

A while back a Disney executive mentioned on video, she said "well, I have two children, five and seven, one is trans and the other is pansexual"

This is a lie, the executive in question seems to have five children who are at least in their teens. How unexpected that he would lie like this.

And I just thought mathematically right away, it's like the chance you have a trans kid is 1/3000. That is not a very high chance.

This, too, seems made up, the actual number from quick googling seems to be at least 1/200. Now here comes the good part.

And let's say the chance that you have a pansexual kid is the same, whatever pansexual means. But whatever that is, it is rarer than trans because no one ever even heard about it until 5 years ago.

Absolutely stunning display of logic and valuing facts. The actual number seems to be more than 1/100, btw.

So the joint probability that you have a trans kid and a pansexual kid is 1/9000000

This does not actually matter because of what he says next, but just so we are keeping track, I'll calculate the actual probability.

math

Of five children, the chance of at least one being trans is 1-(199/200)^5 ≈ 1/40. The same for at least one pan kid is 1-(99/100)^5 ≈ 1/20. Given the rough approximations in the probabilities and ignoring likely correlations, this is an order of magnitude calculation, and we will therefore ignore subtracting the probability that exactly one child is both trans and pan, mostly because I do not want to check my calculations (for the record I think it is about 1/5000). We get the total probability of (1-(199/200)5)*(1-(99/100)5) ≈ 1/1000

The probability is around 1/1000, three orders of magnitude more than Kermit's estimate. This is ignoring multiple factors that would make the actual probability significantly higher, most likely. Anyways, I lied before, this is the actual best part:

The odds that you are a pathological narcissist sacrificing you own children [...] is 8999999:1.

This is like saying that if you roll two dice and get two sixes, the chance that the dice are weighted to always roll sixes is 35:1. This is like saying that if you flip a coin and it lands heads, there is a 50 % chance that it actually landed tails and you are just delusional. This is like saying that if you get struck by lightning, the odds are 999999:1 that no you didn't.

The density of falsehoods and nonsense in the clip is just stunning. People unironically call this person a scientist and an intellectual!!

  • emizeko [they/them]
    ·
    2 years ago

    when the Koch money spigot turns off you will never hear from this guy again

    • Evilphd666 [he/him, comrade/them]
      ·
      2 years ago

      Wilks Brothers theocratic cultist billionaires.

      Elections and campaigns

      The Wilks brothers supported Texas U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in the 2016 United States presidential election, contributing $15 million to a super political action committee backing Cruz. They gave $50,000 in 2016 to the candidacy of Jeff Judson, who unsuccessfully challenged fellow Republican Joe Straus, Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives, in the District 121 Republican legislative primary in March 2016. Farris Wilks gave $75,000 to Jeff Cason in the 2020 Republican primary in the contest to replace Jonathan Stickland in Texas State House District 92. Their Defend Texas Liberty PAC gave more than $3 million to the Don Huffines 2022 Texas gubernatorial campaign.

      Political media

      The Wilks brothers, along with political commentator Ben Shapiro, helped launch and fund The Daily Wire, a conservative news and opinion website in 2015. Additionally, the Wilks Brothers provided early stage funding to Prager University, a YouTube channel and media company started by Dennis Prager to further conservative causes to a young audience. They are major donors to conservative advocacy group Empower Texans.

          • emizeko [they/them]
            ·
            2 years ago

            thanks. after reading this article I hope they kick the bucket too

            https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3p33j/fracking-farris-dan-wilks-prageru-climate-crisis-denial-shapiro

            • bbnh69420 [she/her, they/them]
              ·
              2 years ago

              Oh they absolutely suck, while the Koch’s are the most open, there are dozens of rich pricks funding the worst people on earth