I'm not much of a tech person and I have no idea if my observations are worth anything, but from where I'm sitting it seems computer technology isn't advancing anywhere near as quickly as it was from the 80s to the early 2010s.

The original Moore's law is dead and has been for a very long time, but the less specific trend of rapidly increasing computational power doesn't seem to hold much water anymore either. The laptop I have now doesn't feel like much of an improvement on the laptop I had four years ago at a similar price point. And the laptop I had six years ago is really only marginally worse.

So for those in the know on the relevant industry, how are things looking in general? What is the expected roadmap for the next 10 to 20 years? Will we ever get to the point where a cheap notebook is capable of running today's most demanding games at the highest settings, 144fps, and 4k resolution? Sort of like how today's notebooks can run the most intensive games of the 90s/early 2000s.

  • Evilphd666 [he/him, comrade/them]
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    edit-2
    1 year ago

    2nm AMD chips in 2025. I think in 10-20 years we're going to see commercial quantum computers. If they can master the kinks, maybe faster than light quantum tunneling communications. Imagine talking to the moon or mars real time.

    I think China will take lead as their society isn't based on hanging on to old tech and milking it forever. They are actually advancing shit for humanity.

    It's a theory :just-a-theory: guys don't lose your shit.

    • kristina [she/her]
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      edit-2
      1 year ago

      You have a serious misunderstanding of quantum tunneling. As it is conceived now, it cannot send information. You can lock two things together to be facing the same way essentially, and when they move apart they will always face the same way. Useful for lock and key encryption, not anything else really

      Quantum computers are useful at very specific math problems but nothing else. Its likely they will make QPUs that slot in like a graphics card and their general purpose for consumers would likely be for light physics calculations in video games. For everyone else, it would be useful at cryptography and training AI models

    • Ideology [she/her]
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      1 year ago

      faster than light quantum tunneling communications

      Doctor Einstein would like a word.

      • Evilphd666 [he/him, comrade/them]
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        1 year ago

        https://astronomy.com/news/2022/10/what-is-quantum-entanglement

        The 2022 Nobel Prize in physics recognized three scientists who made groundbreaking contributions in understanding one of the most mysterious of all natural phenomena: quantum entanglement.

        In the simplest terms, quantum entanglement means that aspects of one particle of an entangled pair depend on aspects of the other particle, no matter how far apart they are or what lies between them. These particles could be, for example, electrons or photons, and an aspect could be the state it is in, such as whether it is “spinning” in one direction or another.

        The strange part of quantum entanglement is that when you measure something about one particle in an entangled pair, you immediately know something about the other particle, even if they are millions of light years apart. This odd connection between the two particles is instantaneous, seemingly breaking a fundamental law of the universe. Albert Einstein famously called the phenomenon “spooky action at a distance.”

          • ProfessorAdonisCnut [he/him]
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            1 year ago

            But you can phrase it like it allows something other than information to travel ftl, which still sounds impressive at first glance if you squint at it

    • mittens [he/him]
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      1 year ago

      Imagine talking to the moon or mars real time.

      Pretty skeptic about this, at that point even stuff like time travel is on the table, like sending information in real time over inconceivably large distances literally violates causality laws, you'll be able to do stuff like pretend to be your own father

      • Mardoniush [she/her]
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        1 year ago

        Even if they're talking about wave averaging stuff, you can't get meaningful data out of it. The Universe really, really wants the speed of light to be a hard limit. Really disappointing for my idea of running a DDoS attack on God.

        • mittens [he/him]
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          1 year ago

          We're trapped in a solitary prison here on earth and the warden is the speed of light

        • Evilphd666 [he/him, comrade/them]
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          1 year ago

          It's a limit, but it's dependent upon the compression of space time. :just-a-theory: we might find different densities and structures we aren't aware of once we start maturing the quantum tech.

    • crosswind [they/them]
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      edit-2
      1 year ago

      If they can master the kinks, maybe faster than light quantum tunneling communications.

      Quantum computers don't allow for faster than light communication. The use of entangled particles allows you to change the the quantum state of a paired particle instantly across distance, but you don't have a way of controlling what that change will be. The effect is only useful when you compare the outcomes of measuring the pairs of particles, so you have to already have a way of communicating, which is still subject to the speed of light.

      Quantum communication isn't any faster than regular communication, but it allows new forms of information to be transmitted that would have been impossible before.

      Edit: Also, quantum tunneling is a different thing, it's not part of entanglement or communications.

    • crosswind [they/them]
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      1 year ago

      It’s a theory guys don’t lose your shit.

      Yeah, you don't need to be jumped on for it, but it's an idea that was thought of and then mathematically ruled out in like the 60's, so people (incl me) get frustrated that it's still a common misunderstanding and rush to clarify.