• Lemmygradwontallowme [he/him, comrade/them]
    ·
    19 days ago

    the real reason

    Look, Jack, I'm seeing many real reasons (geopolitical interests in position by Europe and U.S against Russia, further shock therapy and economic domination by the west, resources and so forth)

    biden

    • Droplet [comrade/them]
      ·
      edit-2
      19 days ago

      Yes, there is a confluence of factors that were entangled in the Ukraine situation, including the oil and gas industries, military industrial complex, land grab by institutional investors and so on.

      But the primary contradiction of the New Cold War is fundamentally dictated by the conflicts emerged out of finance capital. The old Cold War ended with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, following nearly half a century of intense conflicts sparked by industrial capital. As the post-Soviet industries were cannibalized and converted into finance capital (i.e., monetization) and directly gave rise to the formation of the EU (formerly EEC) and the eurozone - a competing rival currency that challenged the hegemony of the US dollar, together with the US and Europe gaining unmitigated access to emerging markets previously blocked off by the Soviet Union, the post-1991 world entered a new phase marked by direct competition among financial powers.

      While China has become a serious challenger to the US hegemony in recent years, its real fear post-1991 has always been a EU-Russia alliance as a geopolitical + macroeconomic entity that would pose serious threat to the hegemonic position of the US dollar, since the minor role of RMB in international trade has been subservient and even beneficial to the US dollar, even to this day. This was why the Maidan coup in 2013 was strongly supported by the US to destabilize Europe, following the completion of Nord Stream 1 pipelines in 2011. In 2021, the Nord Stream 2 pipelines were completed, and the war in Ukraine followed soon after.

      In 2022, just 3 weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia and China signed a 30-year gas deal to be settled in euro.

      This would have been a nightmare for the US imperialists, as it would have meant a closer integration between EU, Russia and China, as well as the strengthening of energy sovereignty for the EU. Therefore, the war in Ukraine had to happen to prevent all these from happening. The consequence of the Ukraine war led to the sinking of the euro as a major competitor to the dollar and the complete removal of the EU as a threat to US imperialists, paving the way for a direct confrontation between US and China.

      • IceWallowCum [he/him]
        ·
        19 days ago

        How do you analyze the current massacre of Gaza through these lens? Considering the timing (same time as Ukraine war, Niger's coup, Iran's coup attempt etc) and the attention it's getting from the imperial core? I remember back in october somebody pointing out the "coincidence" of a land rich with gas fields getting attacked not long after Nordsk's explosion

        • Droplet [comrade/them]
          ·
          edit-2
          19 days ago

          I will not re-iterate the many points that others have made on Hexbear re: Gaza since there are many strong incentives for the US to support Israel as the bulwark of their imperialist reach in the Middle East.

          Instead, I will try to give you a perspective in terms of the maintenance of the dollar hegemony, which I believe is just as equally imperative if not more so since the entire US imperialist power is derived from the dollar hegemony, which in turn enables its limitless spending on military (Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson goes into the nitty gritty of this if you’re interested).

          One of the main problems for the US right now is the global dollar liquidity crunch, caused by the interest rate spikes since 2022 after the war in Ukraine started. To protect itself from the inflation sparked by the sanctions against Russia and its backlashes, the US raised interest rates (the fastest hike since the Volcker shock in 1980) and sucked in huge sums of international capital in an attempt to “curb” inflation - the stronger dollar does make import cheaper, but it is important to recognize that raising interest rates doesn’t really solve inflation: it merely allows the monopoly capital to charge excessive price, facilitate the transfer of wealth to the top 1%, and perhaps most importantly, to institute austerity under the pretense of “printing too much money”.

          As a result, simply by raising the US interest rate to 5%, many developing countries across the Global South now suffer from falling exchange rate (making imports more expensive than before) as well as rising interest on their dollar-denominated debt.

          A prominent example is Egypt, directly neighboring Gaza, and is now suffering from severe dollar crunch since March 2022:

          “The dollar is always a problem for Egypt every few years,” Al-Sisi admitted. “I provide services and sell them to people in Egyptian pounds, but I get them in dollars.” He cited the billion-dollar monthly costs of essential imports, fuel, and power plant gas, highlighting the strain on Egypt’s foreign currency reserves.

          “Egypt needs $1bn per month for basic food imports,” Al-Sisi indicated.

          The [Egyptian] pound has shed nearly half its value against the US dollar since March 2022, reflecting a confluence of economic pressures. Egypt, like many nations, is grappling with the fallout from the Ukraine war, including higher energy and food import costs.

          Additionally, the country’s reliance on tourism revenue has been hampered by global travel disruptions.

          This is, of course, a double-edged sword: on the one hand, it makes Global South countries more dependent on the dollar than ever; on the other hand, there is now a strong incentive for the Global South countries to announce mass default and leave the dollar system completely.

          With the failure of the BRICS+ bloc to capitalize on de-dollarization and offering an alternative to the dollar, many countries are now running on survival mode that relies on earning US dollars to pay for imports, repaying debt etc. This is also why nobody will intervene for the Gazan Palestinians - most countries are looking out for their own survival, and if 2 million Gazan Palestinians are to be sacrificed, then so be it. Rather them than 50 million of our own. The war in Gaza and the continued oppression of the Palestinians cannot end without a serious move towards global de-dollarization.

          Biden just passed a $100 billion foreign aid bill, marking $61 bil to Ukraine and $26 bil to Israel. What this does is that the Israelis will use parts of those free money to import stuff. Everyone is now fighting to sell stuff to Israel/Ukraine (or the middle men that facilitate the import/export business) because that’s one way of earning dollars - fresh money just created by the US government.

          The dollars will then move from Ukraine/Israel to the exporting country, which then uses those dollars to import fuel/food etc., and those money ultimately and inevitably ends up in the hands of American bourgeoisie, the ones who ultimately profit from the scheme.

          This facilitates a circular flow of the dollar, and enables the US dollar to retain its global reserve currency status, and getting “free ride” wherever it needs. The global dollar liquidity drain caused by the interest rate hikes is now being balanced out - slowly but surely - by increased US spending in the foreign sector.

          And no matter how much people hate the dollar, at the end of the day you still need it to make ends meet, because there is simply no alternative.