Look if you don't want to mount an intellectual defense for the claim "climate change is going to kill us all", that's absolutely okay you are under no obligation to, but I want everyone to know that's position being offered without any backing.
Climate change has an actual and real potential to end our species in the relatively near future. We have already kicked off a mass extinction event that has only just begun. I "offered backing" for this in other comments in this thread, discussing it with someone who demonstrated a willingness to have a conversation, not just debate-bro-reddit-style demand evidence from me for something any decent climatologist would straight up tell you.
Climate change has an actual and real potential to end our species in the relatively near future.
A gamma ray burst has an actual and real potential to end our species tomorrow. Yet it would be wildly irresponsible for me to tell people that they're going to die in a gamma ray burst.
not just debate-bro-reddit-style demand evidence
The implication that it is somehow rude to insist that you back up positions that can actively cause distress in other people is not one that I'm going to accept, so complain about "debate-bros" at your leisure but don't expect me to care.
something any decent climatologist would straight up tell you.
And yet neither you nor anyone else here can point an actual example of any of them actually saying human extinction is very likely based on their projections. My climatologist friend is getting married in August. I'm going to the wedding. They're planning to have kids.
Ok, here's the first result in a duckduckgo search:
Catastrophic climate change outcomes, including human extinction, are not being taken seriously enough by scientists, a new study says. .
Second result
Will Humans go Extinct? Death by ecological contamination or the climate emergency would be slower but still within the realm of possibility. .
Third
Climate endgame: risk of human extinction ‘dangerously underexplored’ .
Happy now? I hope you realize how reddit-tier it is to demand sources like that when you can easily do a search without forcing the person you're talking to to do it for you with the implication that they're full of shit if they don't do your homework. Not to mention the "well my best friend is [expert in field being discussed] so nyeah."
any [climate scientists] saying human extinction is very likely based on their projections
From the study cited in two of those articles.
This caution is understandable, yet it is mismatched to the risks and potential damages posed by climate change. We know that temperature rise has “fat tails”: low-probability, high-impact extreme outcomes (9). Climate damages are likely to be nonlinear and result in an even larger tail (10). Too much is at stake to refrain from examining high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. The COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the need to consider and prepare for infrequent, high-impact global risks, and the systemic dangers they can spark. Prudent risk management demands that we thoroughly assess worst-case scenarios.
hahah my god, I am back on reddit. I thought I had gotten away from that. I wonder where the goalposts are going to be moved next. Doesn't matter, I'm just going to refer you back to what I actually said several comments ago: "Climate change has an actual and real potential to end our species." As for the demand of specific scientists, they're referred to right there in the articles I already presented, which I shouldn't have gone to the trouble of finding for someone obviously unwilling to engage in actual discussion.
How is quoting back at you literally what I asked for verbatim moving the goalposts?
Climate change has an actual and real potential to end our species.
This is true, and if had been where we started, I wouldn't have objected. Where did we start actually though?
"we're all going to die" is indisputably going too far and it's a meme that needs to die.
No it's not. It's not going too far to recognize a very real possibility
very real possibility implies a probability threshold that you absolutely cannot substantiate. Telling people they're all going to die of climate change is a far cry from the much more reasonable claim "climate change driven extinction of the human race a possibility in the coming centuries".
Literally all I said: "It's not going too far to recognize a very real possibility." I've done nothing but back that up. Over and over. And over and over you're telling me I haven't.
"we're all going to die" is indisputably going too far
No it's not.
The claim that climate change is going to kill nearly everyone currently living is absolutely unmoored from current science, modelling, or anything else. The defensibility of that claim is what we were originally talking about when you jumped in.
very real possibility implies a probability threshold that you absolutely cannot substantiate.
I substantiated it by giving you articles that said it's a very real possibility. You quote one of those articles that is saying "yes, it's a very real possibility" but because they also use the words "low probability" of that very real possibility, you think... you've refuted something I said. One specifically talking about a low-probability event that was a very real possibility... because IT HAPPENED. This is... I can't even...
So when you say "very real possibility", you don't mean to imply anything about the probability of that event. You just mean "possible possibility"?
The article doesn't even say 'very real possibility' for the record so I don't know why you're treating that as a verbatim quote to show correspondence with your position.
lol. So you quote one of the articles as a gotcha? The one that talks about another "low-risk" event that DID HAPPEN and that literally just killed off tens of millions of people? Yeah, that's a great refutation of my statement about climate change induced extinction being a very real possibility... by pointing out a low possibility but very real threat that literally just happened. And is still happening... despite mass denialism. Wow. Please, by all means, prove my point further by trying to own me some more.
A roulette wheel came up red 32 times in a row in 1943, so you should go buy a lottery ticket right? It is a very real possibility that you could win, and anyone that claims such "I am going to win the lottery tomorrow" is not supported by probability is being needlessly pendantic right?
To use the example you were using from the article to apparently try to own me... Covid was the red 32 times in this analogy. It happened. Funny how in retrospect, they are both actually something of an inevitability if the warnings of people who did predict them aren't heeded. Just like rolling red 32 times is if you have millions of wheels continuing to spin without stopping, guess what... odds go up. No, I'm not going out to bet my life savings on 32 red in a row tomorrow. The same way I'm not nor did I *ever imply we're all literally going to drop literally dead literally tomorrow. But 32 red actually happening somewhere in the world at some point in the very past? Yeah... hmm.. it happened, go figure. Thanks for reminding us all that even seemingly low probability events actually really do happen.
Look if you don't want to mount an intellectual defense for the claim "climate change is going to kill us all", that's absolutely okay you are under no obligation to, but I want everyone to know that's position being offered without any backing.
Climate change has an actual and real potential to end our species in the relatively near future. We have already kicked off a mass extinction event that has only just begun. I "offered backing" for this in other comments in this thread, discussing it with someone who demonstrated a willingness to have a conversation, not just debate-bro-reddit-style demand evidence from me for something any decent climatologist would straight up tell you.
A gamma ray burst has an actual and real potential to end our species tomorrow. Yet it would be wildly irresponsible for me to tell people that they're going to die in a gamma ray burst.
The implication that it is somehow rude to insist that you back up positions that can actively cause distress in other people is not one that I'm going to accept, so complain about "debate-bros" at your leisure but don't expect me to care.
And yet neither you nor anyone else here can point an actual example of any of them actually saying human extinction is very likely based on their projections. My climatologist friend is getting married in August. I'm going to the wedding. They're planning to have kids.
Ok, here's the first result in a duckduckgo search:
Second result
Third
Happy now? I hope you realize how reddit-tier it is to demand sources like that when you can easily do a search without forcing the person you're talking to to do it for you with the implication that they're full of shit if they don't do your homework. Not to mention the "well my best friend is [expert in field being discussed] so nyeah."
No, try again.
From the study cited in two of those articles.
hahah my god, I am back on reddit. I thought I had gotten away from that. I wonder where the goalposts are going to be moved next. Doesn't matter, I'm just going to refer you back to what I actually said several comments ago: "Climate change has an actual and real potential to end our species." As for the demand of specific scientists, they're referred to right there in the articles I already presented, which I shouldn't have gone to the trouble of finding for someone obviously unwilling to engage in actual discussion.
How is quoting back at you literally what I asked for verbatim moving the goalposts?
This is true, and if had been where we started, I wouldn't have objected. Where did we start actually though?
very real possibility implies a probability threshold that you absolutely cannot substantiate. Telling people they're all going to die of climate change is a far cry from the much more reasonable claim "climate change driven extinction of the human race a possibility in the coming centuries".
Literally all I said: "It's not going too far to recognize a very real possibility." I've done nothing but back that up. Over and over. And over and over you're telling me I haven't.
The claim that climate change is going to kill nearly everyone currently living is absolutely unmoored from current science, modelling, or anything else. The defensibility of that claim is what we were originally talking about when you jumped in.
I substantiated it by giving you articles that said it's a very real possibility. You quote one of those articles that is saying "yes, it's a very real possibility" but because they also use the words "low probability" of that very real possibility, you think... you've refuted something I said. One specifically talking about a low-probability event that was a very real possibility... because IT HAPPENED. This is... I can't even...
So when you say "very real possibility", you don't mean to imply anything about the probability of that event. You just mean "possible possibility"?
The article doesn't even say 'very real possibility' for the record so I don't know why you're treating that as a verbatim quote to show correspondence with your position.
lol. So you quote one of the articles as a gotcha? The one that talks about another "low-risk" event that DID HAPPEN and that literally just killed off tens of millions of people? Yeah, that's a great refutation of my statement about climate change induced extinction being a very real possibility... by pointing out a low possibility but very real threat that literally just happened. And is still happening... despite mass denialism. Wow. Please, by all means, prove my point further by trying to own me some more.
A roulette wheel came up red 32 times in a row in 1943, so you should go buy a lottery ticket right? It is a very real possibility that you could win, and anyone that claims such "I am going to win the lottery tomorrow" is not supported by probability is being needlessly pendantic right?
To use the example you were using from the article to apparently try to own me... Covid was the red 32 times in this analogy. It happened. Funny how in retrospect, they are both actually something of an inevitability if the warnings of people who did predict them aren't heeded. Just like rolling red 32 times is if you have millions of wheels continuing to spin without stopping, guess what... odds go up. No, I'm not going out to bet my life savings on 32 red in a row tomorrow. The same way I'm not nor did I *ever imply we're all literally going to drop literally dead literally tomorrow. But 32 red actually happening somewhere in the world at some point in the very past? Yeah... hmm.. it happened, go figure. Thanks for reminding us all that even seemingly low probability events actually really do happen.
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And so we come upon the limits of the frequentist interpretation of probability and it's inability to work on single trials.
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No, just that the fact that certain low probability event occurred does not imply all low probability events must occur.