Cards on the table I haven't seen anything from the Russians substantiating "Kiev in 3 days" only western talking heads dooming about the invasion at the start, it just seems like this broadly accepted idea, now, that Russia took a half-assed shot at Kiev for all the marbles then pulled it at the last minute
I lean towards the feint theory side but admit it could just be cope, it just strikes me as wild to consider taking a capital as some sort of win war button, thats not how it works
I think the most plausible explanation for the Kiev pincer in the early days is it was a feint, which is a tactic the Soviets developed and used extensively. Its point was mainly to put pressure on the Ukraine government and prevent them from being able to commit more forces to the actual front in Donbass. If there had been no resistance, maybe they would have taken the opportunity and pushed into Kiev, but they pulled out when early negotiations were making progress.
We have no idea what Russia actually wanted or expected, we just have Russian statements and speculation from western talking heads speculating about that.
My speculation was that Russia wanted a repeat of their intervention in the South Ossetia war. A show of force, including a rapid drive on the capital, followed by a favorable peace deal. This peace deal would probably include an end to the Donbas war, Crimean water rights, and massive demilitarization of Ukraine. Ukraine may have had to recognize the Donbas republics. The peace talks were in Turkey and it looks like Boris Johnson came in and scuttled them.
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Cards on the table I haven't seen anything from the Russians substantiating "Kiev in 3 days" only western talking heads dooming about the invasion at the start, it just seems like this broadly accepted idea, now, that Russia took a half-assed shot at Kiev for all the marbles then pulled it at the last minute
I lean towards the feint theory side but admit it could just be cope, it just strikes me as wild to consider taking a capital as some sort of win war button, thats not how it works
But it's worth 50 victory points!
I think the most plausible explanation for the Kiev pincer in the early days is it was a feint, which is a tactic the Soviets developed and used extensively. Its point was mainly to put pressure on the Ukraine government and prevent them from being able to commit more forces to the actual front in Donbass. If there had been no resistance, maybe they would have taken the opportunity and pushed into Kiev, but they pulled out when early negotiations were making progress.
We have no idea what Russia actually wanted or expected, we just have Russian statements and speculation from western talking heads speculating about that.
My speculation was that Russia wanted a repeat of their intervention in the South Ossetia war. A show of force, including a rapid drive on the capital, followed by a favorable peace deal. This peace deal would probably include an end to the Donbas war, Crimean water rights, and massive demilitarization of Ukraine. Ukraine may have had to recognize the Donbas republics. The peace talks were in Turkey and it looks like Boris Johnson came in and scuttled them.