I think #4 is correct, but if Russia had leaned more heavily on economic/political methods of countering Ukraine and the west it would've - imo - just been kicking the can on this whole process for a few more years. They'd already been trying that approach before the SMO started. This whole thing certainly could've been avoided but it takes two to tango and Russia couldn't have unwound the tension solely by itself
TBH the only reason I considered that there might be a point to #4 is because it's Mark Ames position, but perhaps he's not immune to liberalism.
I think #4 is correct, but if Russia had leaned more heavily on economic/political methods of countering Ukraine and the west it would've - imo - just been kicking the can on this whole process for a few more years. They'd already been trying that approach before the SMO started. This whole thing certainly could've been avoided but it takes two to tango and Russia couldn't have unwound the tension solely by itself