This AI bubble is rapidly accelerating and it will take the entire market (and global economy) down with it. And while Sam Altman didn't singlehandedly ignite the new silicon arms race, OpenAI (and ChatGPT) did usher in the era we are now living in.
Much was said about Nvidia overtaking Microsoft today to become the world's most valuable company, but take a look at the top 3:
They are ALL beneficiaries of partnerships with OpenAI. Microsoft added a trillion dollars of market cap since partnering with them last year and Apple hit new all time highs after their announcement that ChatGPT will power "Apple Intelligence". And Nvidia? Well, they were just a $300 billion dollar video game card maker 5 years ago and now they are the biggest company on earth because their cards train AI models.
I'm just flabbergasted at how quickly and thoroughly the promises made by one small startup has become the economic backbone of the entire stock market. The bubble popping for this hype cycle will be one for the ages.
I think we're going to go into a remarkable bubble. It seems like we're probably in a bubble now, but I think it's just getting started and it is going to be much, much more insane in a year. But of course there's no way to predict the future. The falling rate of profit means the earnings on assets are getting smaller and that means typical PE ratios will tend to go up over time, so money will chase stocks up to very high prices in a search for yield that doesn't exist anymore.