Military Junta in Niger has released a statement claiming that ECOWAS has completed its preparations for an Invasion of Niger with at least 2 Members of the Organization

ECOWAS' deadline for the new Nigerien govt to peacefully step down lest they use military action has passed. "A Senior Military Commander with the ECOWAS-Standby Force has told the Wall Street Journal that it’s Forces need more time to prepare before any kind of Military Intervention in Niger, with the “Success” of the Operation being dependent on these preparations"

French Ministry of Foreign Affairs updates travel advisory to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (the three nations declared to defend the new Nigerien govt against military intervention) the highest level of caution

  • JuneFall [none/use name]
    ·
    1 year ago

    In my opinion they can recruit in-country from the local prison populations and balloon their numbers within weeks/months. They've demonstrated this effectively and managed it very well, all they need to do is repeat the model and it'll be improved over the Ukraine version.

    They demonstrated that when they had good standing relations with the country they recruit in and had a common established language. This isn't that true if you want to recruit in prisons in the three country alliance at this point. It also would need changes in laws and have the usual problems of recruiting people from prison.

    I do think that the conventional armies of the three countries under the leadership of the effective ruling governments will show to be more important in the West African conflict than the Wagner group. However I might be proven wrong.

    Perhaps they're not confident about the information they can offer though, it seems to change so quickly that it's hard to be sure.

    That is absolutely true, also it is hard to get real information about Wagner and mercenaries since they like to claim they have plenty members to advertise on the market and at the same time there is disinformation going on by the state actors, with Wagner also having a vested interest in not having their exact numbers exposed on region level.

    While I don't like more right of center The New Wars by Herfried Münkler from 2004 it did present some developments in the emerging roles of mercenaries and non state actors in wars and armed conflicts. It would be interesting how within the 20 years after it the assessments ought to be changed. Surely you frame Wagner as very skilled and impactful force that can meet and exceed state actor capabilities in more situations than special operations. Which is a significant change from then.

    It seems that in Mali the main priority for Wagner seems to be that which foreign instructors did over the last 80 years.