Quote from someone I know:

russia's going to internally implode before it goes really bad

they are good at not showing it online but if you take the time to dig into the mere possibility of russia not doing too well, they're on the brink of integral logistical failure

all the cold war era public utilities, food production, roads, transportation, etc, have lost all funding / all deviated back to military spending, the country is literally consuming its own lifespan to keep the war going

last winter they got massive freezes, this spring they got floodings, and this summer they'll get forest fires

this is what happens when you conscripted firefighters, public utility workers, and every able bodied male to the military without consideration

even if russia does take kiyv they will never be able to hold it for more than a year

They already got the cope for future scenarios prepared.