Trump was always a uniquely hated and weak candidate. It was remarkable that Hillary lost to him. And then we analyzed the situation. Trump won by electoral votes. The swing states were strategically campaigned for a long time. Trump getting elected energized a broad base both for and against, and the base that was for was previously nigh invisible.
Then Biden beat him. How? Well, he was a career politician for decades. He had a massive machine behind him, Democrats were energized for anything but Trump, and the Trump base was complacent, as most winners are, that they were going to be fine.
Now we have Harris, who has not been campaigning and will only have 3 months to campaign, Trump got shot at, and the Democrats have alienated a huge portion of their base.
Which means that in swing states, the ones that win the electoral college, Trump has the underdog advantage, he has the martyr advantage, he has the white male advantage, he has the rhetorical advantage, he has the campaign grind advantage, and he has the demotivated opposition advantage.
The much hated Trump is going to win the electoral college through swing voters for one of three reasons and Kamala is going to get the base less the disillusioned.
There needs to be major strategic moves in 90 days by the DNC to have by chance of winning the electoral college.
It doesn't need to change his polling, it needs to change voter motivation. Very different things.
Also, Ds have campaigned on abortion for 40 years. The electorate cares but they don't trust the Ds to fix it. The fatigue is real and it will cause more people to stay home.
Also, Ds have campaigned on abortion for 40 years. The electorate cares but they don't trust the Ds to fix it. The fatigue is real and it will cause more people to stay home.
Yeah but now Roe is actually gone which totally changes the equation.
Also are we forgetting how 2022 went so quickly?? Some of that hidden zoomer vote will be deflated by Gaza, but less so now that the candidate isnt actually Biden himself (even if Kamala as his VP will carry that baggage to some extent, which is one of the best arguments for picking someone untouched by it even if they would definitly continue it lol). But still, quiet a lot of it will remain... especially because of abortion. Zoomers largely havent had the chance to have the life go out of their eyes yet lol.
Characterizing "believing Democrats will save them" as "still having life in their eyes" is a little backwards. Zoomere are more informed than most generations before them and they also have that rebellious spark that every generation had. Couple that the awareness of how bad the Dems are fucking everyone and I would say Zoomers are more likely than anyone to get disillusioned by the bullshit that is the DNC.
Now that Roe is gone, we all watched the Ds refuse to pack the court. We all watched them argue they couldn't protect abortion because of the filibuster and then bypass the filibuster to raise the debt ceiling. We all watched them compromise and compromise and compromise even on things Republicans wanted without ever taking an inch. They have failed. Now that Lucy has pulled the football, you think there's energy to have Lucy try us again.
The energy is dispersed and the dominant energy is fear of fascism, fear of right wing death squads, fear of the return of lynching. The Ds primary advantage is that they are not Trump and the vast majority of energy out there is the base that isn't bothered so much by things like genocide. But the Ds are terrible at narrative control except insofar as they play the victim and blame others for their failings.
Another poster said it best, the Ds have somehow reversed how politics works and have stated that success of a campaign is the responsibility of the donors and voters. That's not how any of this works.
Trump was always a uniquely hated and weak candidate. It was remarkable that Hillary lost to him. And then we analyzed the situation. Trump won by electoral votes. The swing states were strategically campaigned for a long time. Trump getting elected energized a broad base both for and against, and the base that was for was previously nigh invisible.
Then Biden beat him. How? Well, he was a career politician for decades. He had a massive machine behind him, Democrats were energized for anything but Trump, and the Trump base was complacent, as most winners are, that they were going to be fine.
Now we have Harris, who has not been campaigning and will only have 3 months to campaign, Trump got shot at, and the Democrats have alienated a huge portion of their base.
Which means that in swing states, the ones that win the electoral college, Trump has the underdog advantage, he has the martyr advantage, he has the white male advantage, he has the rhetorical advantage, he has the campaign grind advantage, and he has the demotivated opposition advantage.
The much hated Trump is going to win the electoral college through swing voters for one of three reasons and Kamala is going to get the base less the disillusioned.
There needs to be major strategic moves in 90 days by the DNC to have by chance of winning the electoral college.
Some of this I agree with but
Abortion.
I have other little nitpicks but this is the main one lol.
Edit: Oh wait, one other nitpick I have is that we've already seen that the assasination attempt didnt actually change Trump's polling.
It doesn't need to change his polling, it needs to change voter motivation. Very different things.
Also, Ds have campaigned on abortion for 40 years. The electorate cares but they don't trust the Ds to fix it. The fatigue is real and it will cause more people to stay home.
Yeah but now Roe is actually gone which totally changes the equation.
Also are we forgetting how 2022 went so quickly?? Some of that hidden zoomer vote will be deflated by Gaza, but less so now that the candidate isnt actually Biden himself (even if Kamala as his VP will carry that baggage to some extent, which is one of the best arguments for picking someone untouched by it even if they would definitly continue it lol). But still, quiet a lot of it will remain... especially because of abortion. Zoomers largely havent had the chance to have the life go out of their eyes yet lol.
Characterizing "believing Democrats will save them" as "still having life in their eyes" is a little backwards. Zoomere are more informed than most generations before them and they also have that rebellious spark that every generation had. Couple that the awareness of how bad the Dems are fucking everyone and I would say Zoomers are more likely than anyone to get disillusioned by the bullshit that is the DNC.
Now that Roe is gone, we all watched the Ds refuse to pack the court. We all watched them argue they couldn't protect abortion because of the filibuster and then bypass the filibuster to raise the debt ceiling. We all watched them compromise and compromise and compromise even on things Republicans wanted without ever taking an inch. They have failed. Now that Lucy has pulled the football, you think there's energy to have Lucy try us again.
The energy is dispersed and the dominant energy is fear of fascism, fear of right wing death squads, fear of the return of lynching. The Ds primary advantage is that they are not Trump and the vast majority of energy out there is the base that isn't bothered so much by things like genocide. But the Ds are terrible at narrative control except insofar as they play the victim and blame others for their failings.
Another poster said it best, the Ds have somehow reversed how politics works and have stated that success of a campaign is the responsibility of the donors and voters. That's not how any of this works.