Though it may seem astonishingly premature to say so, my impression after returning from the Russian front is that the war in Ukraine is over and that the powers that be haven't realized it yet

Agreed

The moral scales have now firmly settled on the side of the Ukrainian defenders, and it is far likelier that Russia itself splinters into its constituent republics than that Ukraine falls to its erstwhile invaders.

The Ukrainian defenders are 0.05% of the way defending up to the gates of Moscow. On a clear day they can even see the spires of the Kremlin on YouTube.

In Russia today, it is entirely different—it is a moral vacuum. Its citizens in Kursk fled the Ukrainian advance like smoke in the wind, leaving homes and possessions without so much as a whimper. I saw exactly one makeshift roadblock, consisting of a few chairs and a rake.

Much like cope cages, the rake is an under-appreciated tool of war. As was demonstrated in the Battle of Cape Feare (season 5, episode 2), a carefully arranged ring of rakes can provide a difficult to penetrate and comically hilarious defensive barrier.

Ukrainian morale, meanwhile, is topping the charts—bordering on euphoria even.

I would even say it’s manic.

A sense of Wild West–like possibility draws a cast of aggressive fighters, many eagerly engaging in their own semiprivate pirate operations in the free-for-all. This does not necessarily imply a lack of Ukrainian command and control

My “A semi-private free-for-all does not imply a lack of command and control” shirt has people asking a lot of questions answered by my shirt.

the Ukrainian armed forces are like a spirited charger, barely reined in. The ambiance is almost party-like—battle-hardened and battle-hungry troops alike joke and banter at the last gas station before the Russian border, glad and relieved to be free of the grinding stalemate of the last months as they race toward the expanding front.

A paean to the freikorps

Those Russians left behind engage in petty low-grade looting of their former neighbors' homes. … Ukrainian occupiers, for their part, are too busy dashing into and through these small Russian towns to bother much with the spoils of war.

Seriously bro it was like that when I got here

Moreover, the comparatively wealthy Ukrainian forces

Oh wait I think I didn’t copy that correctly

Moreover, the comparatively wealthy Ukrainian forces

Uh. I did.

Moreover, the comparatively wealthy Ukrainian forces laugh at the grimy and obsolete possessions of their neighbors—continually surprised at the degree of pervasive shortage.

So the Russians looted themselves, on the land occupied by the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians are indeed poking through their possessions, and all of a sudden the Ukrainians are wealthy and the local Russians are poor.

Ukrainian soldiers instead feed the abandoned dogs, then move quickly onward to press their advantage at the far fringes of the active front line.

Russia's incursion into Ukraine has simply run out of moral impetus. It has the resources, of course, to engage in a substantial amount of lingering mayhem. No doubt it will. But the Ukrainians I've met simply cannot envisage a scenario in which they lose. They are prepared to fight in the streets to the last man, and their commitment to freedom is overwhelming. In contrast to the current Russian mood, which seems largely to be one of confused apathy, Ukrainians have the decided advantage.

Literally Triumph of the Will.

The Kursk offensive, for all its complexities and contradictions, has, if nothing else, opened a clear window into the popular wills of each side.

Russia has the resources, and the momentum, and the endless supply of rakes, and the ability to inflict “mayhem”… oh shit that sounds pretty bad for Ukraine actually