The weirdest part is the idea that Ukraine could ever become a part of NATO in the first place.
Is every single person in the Zelensky regime so utterly incompetent that they genuinely believed that would actually happen while they were in a civil war between 2014 and 2022, not to mention now when they are in an all out war with a literal nuclear power? I very much doubt that.
Something doesn't add up here.
Zelensky has said openly that he was told from the beginning by NATO that Ukraine would never be admitted but that making it seem possible was all they would do
It's always been about trying to destabilize Russia without regard to what happens to Ukrainiana
honestly one of the most tragic parts of this whole conflict. should be a rule: NEVER TRUST ANGLOS TO UPHOLD THEIR GEOPOLITICAL PROMISES
I assume people in Taiwan are pretty horrified with the level of "support" heckin chungus Ukraine has received
How this is not a generally accepted rule in international politics 101 with like 250+ years of solid data is beyond me.
Never trust Europeans.
Never trust Americans.
Never trust Brits, ESPECIALLY!!!
I don't see any particular reason why Ukraine wouldn't be admitted, given the extended reach it would provide NATO.
With the country being cannibalized by the rogue's gallery of war-profiteer banksters and private speculators, I'd say the odds of them becoming home to a slew of western military bases has only gone up over time. Just like Albania being admitted in '92, this seems like a normal response to NATO intervention.
No doubt things have changed, but NATO rules technically prevent it - see the recent summit where they quietly stated Ukraine must improve their corruption problem, improve rule of law, increase democracy, etc and so forth, before being admitted - and NATO doesn't actually want to get into a land war with Russia. Tricking an unattached, non-NATO Ukraine into a war with Russia was always NATO's goal, and I kind of doubt Ukraine will ever be in NATO. Of course that doesn't prevent the US from plopping bases down (or mercenaries, or whatever).
NATO rules technically prevent it
Applied rigorously, half the member states couldn't join under NATO's own guidelines. Turkey isn't in the bloc because of its zealous commitment to rule of law. Its just the largest armed force on this side of the Atlantic and at a pivotal point of international trade.
Tricking an unattached, non-NATO Ukraine into a war with Russia was always NATO's goal
I wouldn't even call it a trick, so much as a continuous series of minor provocations that escalated as western oligarchs balkinized the region. I suspect NATO leadership would have been happy enough with an "East/West Ukraine" split, had Russia gone with an "arming the moderate rebels" approach rather than a full scale invasion. As it stands today, that's most likely what we're going to get, just at orders of magnitude greater loss of life and demolition of valuable infrastructure.
Of course that doesn't prevent the US from plopping bases down (or mercenaries, or whatever).
One of the "nicers" things about Ukraine was that it already had a large active military and a sizable surplus of ground weapons. I don't think the folks in NATO anticipated how quickly Zelensky's commanders would just blow through all their reserves or how fast Ukrainian units would collapse under Russian air and sea power. While there's definitely a bunch of arms dealers who are salivating at the next requisition for bombs and guns, I suspect a fair number of NATO logistics folks are sweating bullets as they acknowledge what a modern continental or global war would actually mean relative to their productive capacity.
There's a real divide between the Money Guys and the Generals, between what generates the most revenue and what actually works on the battlefield. And NATO is, at its heart, a military operation. I don't know if the US really has the swag left to occupy Ukraine comparable to what they've done in the Balkins or Korea. Not after the shit show that was Iraq/Afghanistan.
The Americans are running out of juice.
Applied rigorously, half the member states couldn't join under NATO's own guidelines. Turkey isn't in the bloc because of its zealous commitment to rule of law. Its just the largest armed force on this side of the Atlantic and at a pivotal point of international trade.
Right, Turkey had something to offer. Ukraine hasn't got anything to offer but neo nazis and a bunch of hand-me-downs NATO already gave them. The IMF has already forced the question on selling off everything of any value, the Ukrainians with the financial means are gone and probably won't return. It doesn't benefit NATO to allow Ukraine to join, particularly since Ukraine already happily walked into the role of "artillery sponge". They did the thing NATO wanted and now they'll be discarded and left as a rump state.
Ukraine hasn't got anything to offer
It has a close proximity to Russia, the entire object of NATO's containment mission. And it has huge... tracks of land. Very pivotal to controlling North Africa, particularly as climate change destroys volume of arable land.
The IMF has already forced the question on selling off everything of any value
But that's only the first step. You still need a large armed presence to guarantee Ukraine's lands stay privatized. Otherwise, you're just dealing with a '79 Iranian Revolution or a Colonel Qaddafi running Libya. NATO gives the framework for installing bases in Ukraine and securing the bag.
I think in a situation where Ukraine didn't just have all of their male population run off or killed you would be right about having to worry about some kind of Ukrainian revolution, but I don't think that's a concern for NATO or the IMF now. The wealthy haven't been conscripted, and they're the ones who will benefit from the privatization scheme - and they're the ones who control what militia factions still exist. The proximity to Russia would be worthwhile if Ukraine didn't already provide all the access the west wants. As far as I can tell, NATO already has everything they want with no need to add further liability to their portfolio.
I don't think that's a concern for NATO or the IMF now.
No. This war has Iran-Iraq'd their populations. It'll take a generation to recover.
The proximity to Russia would be worthwhile if Ukraine didn't already provide all the access the west wants.
They didn't, though. That was the whole conflict around Donetsk that pushed this conflict to a full invasion.
NATO already has everything they want
Idk. Western Media wants you to believe NATO is always and forever winning, but this war has exposed serious flaws across the whole continent.
The economic demands put on the European members have been enormous, and its biggest players don't appear nearly as loyal to the coalition as they were thirty years ago.
I was just wracking my brain for an aphorism and finally googled it because my grey matter failed me - this is a real "why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free" situation for NATO, in my opinion
I guess we'll see. I think we're going to see NATO all over Western Ukraine within another two or three years.
I look forward to the news mega coverage if it comes to pass!
They didn't, though. That was the whole conflict around Donetsk that pushed this conflict to a full invasion.
Sure, but joining NATO isn't going to bring the Donbass or Crimea back into Ukrainian hands. Not only will they never get them back, they're going to have to officially, politically acknowledge that that is no longer Ukrainian territory if they want to join NATO. So there's still no benefit to having them join NATO for NATO.
Idk. Western Media wants you to believe NATO is always and forever winning, but this war has exposed serious flaws across the whole continent.
The economic demands put on the European members have been enormous, and its biggest players don't appear nearly as loyal to the coalition as they were thirty years ago.
C'mon, you know I know and agree with that. NATO didn't win this, but that doesn't mean Ukraine has anything to offer them that they don't already have. Actually allowing Ukraine to join NATO is nothing but a liability to NATO - that is why I'm staking my claim that it won't happen, at least not in the next decade.
It's very simple. Ruasia doesn't want Ukraine to be in NATO. Therefore, the messaging from the coup government is, "we are gonna join NATO". It doesn't need to make sense so long as it antagonizes.
It's also part of internal propaganda to signal who should be thought of as allies. Part of a general attempt to integrate with the EU (EU doesn't want them, interestingly enough) and that requires consent manufacturing.
Zelensky is obviously a corrupt piece of shit (and it also should be noted that he ran his presidential campaign on supposedly wanting good relations with Russia), but I don't really think your comment here explains much at all.
The question of how anyone in the regime could have possibly thought this whole thing would go their way remains unanswered.
I think you have to factor in that the Jewish President of Ukraine who had a shit-ton of antisemitic nazi brigades doing pogroms and war crimes for almost a decade suddenly found himself in a position where the hegemony wanted the same thing the nazis wanted (cough cough project aerodynamic) and Zelensky personally wanted to keep breathing, and now we're here
Part of a general attempt to integrate with the EU (EU doesn't want them, interestingly enough) and that requires consent manufacturing.
Why would they, Ukraine was the poorest and most corrupt country in all of Yurope. That was before the war. This is like admitting Bolivia to NAFTA. It's just a whole slew of problems waiting to happen. The EU doesn't even want to admit Serbia or Turkey, which are like 3x richer (per capita).
What I had in mind is that certain folks treat the EU as being a basic good and that if you want to be part of it, cool and good countries would never stand in your way. I don't have hexbear people in mind, that's just what I think of when UA + EU comes up.
Oh, perfectly acceptable. I also didn't have hexbear users in mind. I just remember 2015 when Europeans wanted to kick Greece out of the EU when they fabricated and embezzled like 10% of their GDP. They called that "irresponsible, not in line with our values" etc.
And now these people want the Ukraine in their club? Lol.
Well that and much more incompetent. A competent puppet isn't a competent puppet for long.
Did Zelensky ever have any control over the situation? He ran as a peace candidate but he couldn't control the militias, so maybe he assumed the conflict would eventually kick off regardless and did whatever the US asked?
If I'm not mistaken in the beginning of his term he did try to make peace but was quickly intimidated by neo-nazi gangs who explicitly told him he would be killed if he tried to make peace.
Watch the Arestovich interview from 2019, they all knew this was going to happen. They didn't care.
Like they are so propagandized that they believe that dutch/danish taxpayers will allow them into the EU. Even by liberal standards that is removed from reality.
