Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree broadening the scope of when Moscow can use nuclear weapons in a clear message to the West and Ukraine.
We’re arguing about the US firing long rang missiles potentially capable of nuclear payloads into Russia from Ukrainian territory.
This is hilarious. The US would not need to do this. They could literally just bring up a Ohio class sub and launch a Trident tipped with MIRVs at Moscow from 4,700 miles away and it would be done with and there's be nothing that Russia could do to defend themselves, unlike a ATACMS which would be capable of being intercepted.
Nobody is going to believe that it's the Ukrainians fault that Russia got nuked dude, if the US wanted to Nuke Russia they could just fucking do it, who would stop them? Who would punish them? Standing behind Ukraine and doing it doesn't change the calculation for anyone.
There's no tangible benefits from this looney toons ass hypothetical plan where the US does a proxy nuclear strike with a weapon capable of only traveling 200 miles, can SAM intercepted, and has a limited utterly THEORETICAL payload.
You really have to be kidding me if you think the US is going to escalate to nukes via TBM instead of SLBM with a MIRV payload against another nuclear power who would immediately blame the US anyway.
The US does not need to do this, but this is literally what US is doing as we're speaking. This is happening, it's not a hypothetical. You're just making a straw man here that has nothing to do with what's actually being said to you. Nowhere did I suggest that US is going to try to hide behind Ukraine to do a nuclear strike on Russia. That's a scenario you made up.
What I actually said to you was that the US is firing nuclear capable missiles from the territory of Ukraine, and that if Russia does not respond that can be perceived as a sign of weakness and invite further escalation. Given that you yourself agree that US is unhinged, it should be obvious why this is a volatile situation.
Meanwhile, please explain to me what tangible benefit there was from the looney toons ass plans the US has pursued over the past two years. There's obviously been no rational plan here at any point in time. Why would we be expecting rational behavior from an actor that's proven itself to be utterly irrational?
What I actually said to you was that the US is firing nuclear capable missiles from the territory of Ukraine, and that if Russia does not respond that can be perceived as a sign of weakness and invite further escalation. Given that you yourself agree that US is unhinged, it should be obvious why this is a volatile situation.
Your arguing that this is the actually the plan?
Shoot "nuclear capable missiles" into Russia from Ukraine
???
Profit (?)
That makes less sense than the US straight up nuking Russia.
Meanwhile, please explain to me what tangible benefit there was from the looney toons ass plans the US has pursued over the past two years. There’s obviously been no rational plan here at any point in time. Why would we be expecting rational behavior from an actor that’s proven itself to be utterly irrational?
The gamble always was that you can use idiot Ukranians to stall Russians to a point where Russia's logistical supply dwindled to the point that it could not practically rearm due to sanctions or economic collapse.
This is literally what they tried and were successful at doing to Assad.
There was never a military victory for Ukrainians.
I'm arguing that Russia cannot set a precedent that NATO can just shoot missiles into Russian territory. Surely it can't be that hard for to understand why Russia has to respond to this.
This is literally what they tried and were successful at doing to Assad.
Except that they weren't even successful with Assad. Last I checked he's still in charge and Syria has not collapsed. Given that they couldn't even do it to a small and poor country there was no rational reason to believe it could ever work against Russia. The whole scheme was hare brained from the very start and could never work in practice. And this is my whole point, the US is not a rational actor that operating on an evidence based doctrine.
I’m arguing that Russia cannot set a precedent that NATO can just shoot missiles into Russian territory. Surely it can’t be that hard for to understand why Russia has to respond to this.
You are again changing your story to fit whatever your current line of argumentation is. You've been using Ukraine/US/NATO interchangeably and saying that's not what I said whenever I'm actually attempting to clarify your argument.
If Ukraine is NATO, then this makes no sense because Ukraine has been shooting ballistic missiles into Russia since the war became hot, Ukraine has no nukes, proliferating a nuke to Ukraine for an ATACMS ranged attack would be the dumbest shit ever.
If the US is NATO, then this makes no sense because the US can simply nuke Russia.
If NATO is NATO, this still makes no sense because by itself NATO doesn't own nukes.
The reality is that Russia has no choice, it cannot actually escalate in a sensible way that doesn't leave itself open for global retaliation if Ukraine shoots ballistic missiles inside the country. The only realistic way to read their communique is if we lose and you don't let us lose on our terms we'll use nukes.
Except that they weren’t even successful with Assad. Last I checked he’s still in charge and Syria has not collapsed. Given that they couldn’t even do it to a small and poor country there was no rational reason to believe it could ever work against Russia.
The Syrian GDP is about a tenth of what it was. The Syrian civil war has sent Syria 45+ years into the past. Jordan and Syria have literally switched places economically, which one was a regional ally of the US again? Sure Assad is holding on by his teeth, but Syria is a ruined country, it's economy prior to the civil war was literally 1/4 oil and 1/4 agriculture, both were wiped out entirely by the war. Syria also used to be a regional banking capital thanks to Assad neoliberalizing the economy, and all that capital fled during the war.
The US has ruined and degraded Syria, neutralized its regional power, and turned it into a destabilized interzone. The only worse level that Syria can go to is Libya's. That's literally a win. That's literally, if done to Russia, what the US would describe as a "good outcome" of the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin doesn't have to abdicate, he can simply be drowned in problems that take decades if not centuries to resolve without external help.
And before we do the BRICS is singing the internationale of post socialist countries bullshit, China isn't going to loan money to a Russia that was defeated in that way, because it's a high risk / low reward outcome for them.
I'm not changing any story. If you go back to the start of the discussion then you'll see that it's the same thing I keep trying to explain to you over and over throughout this thread. Meanwhile, you just keep making straw man arguments instead of engaging with what I'm saying.
The realistic way to read this is that Russia could retaliate using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and then the ball will be in NATO court where NATO has to decide if they want to escalate further towards a nuclear holocaust or back off. Both sides can play the escalation game.
Of course, Russia could also escalate asymmetrically, for example they could provide weapons to Yemen, Syria, and Iran that could shoot down stuff like F35s and get past AD. The US is incredibly exposed globally, and there are plenty of pressure points that Russia can exploit. This is the main reason I don't expect Russia to respond directly to strikes into its territory.
The US has ruined and degraded Syria, neutralized its regional power, and turned it into a destabilized interzone.
Yet, Syria is still a viable state and the US forces in the region are slowly being squeezed out. The point here was that the objective of getting a regime change in Syria failed. Again, if US couldn't even take down Syria, there was no hope of this working in Russia.
Meanwhile, you don't seem to understand the importance of Russia to China. Russia provides a shield in the west that prevents China being surrounded by NATO, and it provides China with the natural resources China needs meaning that it cannot be blockaded. These two factors make it vital to China that Russia stays stable and friendly to China. Which means there was absolutely no scenario where China could allow Russia to be defeated.
I'm not changing any story. If you go back to the start of the discussion then you'll see that it's the same thing I keep trying to explain to you over and over throughout this thread.
Yeah reading through this thread I'm getting very strong contrarian debatebro vibes from _pi. Constantly deflecting the topic of discussion and going on irrelevant tangents.
I wouldn't engage any further, this is just a waste of time.
Damascus literally doesn't have on-demand electricity, it experiences blackouts daily. More than half the people of Syria are food insecure. 6+ million people have been displaced in the last decade. The fuck you mean viable state?
Are you claiming Syrian government is going to collapse in the foreseeable future, or you have some private definition of what a viable state is that you'd like to share with us here?
Yeah a viable state is capable of defending its borders, growing its economy, and developing quality of life for its citizens. Syria is failing on all 3 counts. Just because Assad can order people around doesn't make Syria a viable state.
Last I checked Syria is in a much better situation today than it was when US started trying to destabilize it. The economic situation is improving, and US presence there is not long for this world. Meanwhile, Assad has more popular support than any western regime leaders. If we apply your metric to the US then it's not a viable state either.
Last I checked Syria is in a much better situation today than it was when US started trying to destabilize it.
Damascus today literally has blackouts daily. The US started fucking with Syria after 9/11. The Syrian energy grid was gravely damaged in 2011.
The economic situation is improving
Their GDP is not even hitting 2% growth by any realistic estimates, they're not releasing accurate data anyway. Some years in 2020-2024 the estimate of GDP growth is negative.
Assad has more popular support than any western regime leaders.
I mean, you should go to Damascus and try to express dissent against Assad.
Damascus today literally has blackouts daily. The US started fucking with Syria after 9/11. The Syrian energy grid was gravely damaged in 2011.
You did not address the point I made which is that the situation has clearly improved. The fact that you can't even acknowledge this basic fact is astounding. Syria was on the verge of collapse with US backed extremists marching on Damascus. Today, the government is firmly in control of most of the territory and economy is stabilizing.
Their GDP is not even hitting 2% growth by any realistic estimates, they’re not releasing accurate data anyway. Some years in 2020-2024 the estimate of GDP growth is negative.
Same goes for Germany and most of the EU, what's your point here?
Trump got 3x the votes of the population of Syria. Biden’s approval rating is 38.6%, the US VEP population is 253,272,570, some light math puts Biden’s approval at 97,763,212 people.
You did not address the point I made which is that the situation has clearly improved.
Yeah and you did not address the point I made which is the situation got gravely worse and is abjectly horrible
Same goes for Germany and most of the EU, what’s your point here?
You love having a selective understanding of economics. Small underdeveloped economy, small percentage growth = very bad. Large global economy, small percentage growth = good. Remember how we were talking about global south markets in the other thread? What happened to all of that?
What point are you even trying to make here?
I was trying to make a joke, because attempting to qualify Assad support is the lulziest shit when he's effectively an absolute monarch of a ruin.
Yeah and you did not address the point I made which is the situation got gravely worse and is abjectly horrible
That's not the point being debated here. You claimed that Syria is not a viable state, and so far you haven't actually managed to defend that position.
You love having a selective understanding of economics.
I don't have a selective understanding of economics. Large global economy that was built on having cheap energy is now in serious trouble because it was cut off from it. Anybody who has a clue about economics would understand how dire the situation is for Germany. Their competitors now have much cheaper input costs, and companies are closing down and laying off people left and right as a result.
In fact, the global south markets are a big part of the reason why Germany is in trouble right now. Chinese companies are eating their lunch all over the world.
This is hilarious. The US would not need to do this. They could literally just bring up a Ohio class sub and launch a Trident tipped with MIRVs at Moscow from 4,700 miles away and it would be done with and there's be nothing that Russia could do to defend themselves, unlike a ATACMS which would be capable of being intercepted.
Nobody is going to believe that it's the Ukrainians fault that Russia got nuked dude, if the US wanted to Nuke Russia they could just fucking do it, who would stop them? Who would punish them? Standing behind Ukraine and doing it doesn't change the calculation for anyone.
There's no tangible benefits from this looney toons ass hypothetical plan where the US does a proxy nuclear strike with a weapon capable of only traveling 200 miles, can SAM intercepted, and has a limited utterly THEORETICAL payload.
You really have to be kidding me if you think the US is going to escalate to nukes via TBM instead of SLBM with a MIRV payload against another nuclear power who would immediately blame the US anyway.
The US does not need to do this, but this is literally what US is doing as we're speaking. This is happening, it's not a hypothetical. You're just making a straw man here that has nothing to do with what's actually being said to you. Nowhere did I suggest that US is going to try to hide behind Ukraine to do a nuclear strike on Russia. That's a scenario you made up.
What I actually said to you was that the US is firing nuclear capable missiles from the territory of Ukraine, and that if Russia does not respond that can be perceived as a sign of weakness and invite further escalation. Given that you yourself agree that US is unhinged, it should be obvious why this is a volatile situation.
Meanwhile, please explain to me what tangible benefit there was from the looney toons ass plans the US has pursued over the past two years. There's obviously been no rational plan here at any point in time. Why would we be expecting rational behavior from an actor that's proven itself to be utterly irrational?
Your arguing that this is the actually the plan?
That makes less sense than the US straight up nuking Russia.
The gamble always was that you can use idiot Ukranians to stall Russians to a point where Russia's logistical supply dwindled to the point that it could not practically rearm due to sanctions or economic collapse.
This is literally what they tried and were successful at doing to Assad.
There was never a military victory for Ukrainians.
I'm arguing that Russia cannot set a precedent that NATO can just shoot missiles into Russian territory. Surely it can't be that hard for to understand why Russia has to respond to this.
Except that they weren't even successful with Assad. Last I checked he's still in charge and Syria has not collapsed. Given that they couldn't even do it to a small and poor country there was no rational reason to believe it could ever work against Russia. The whole scheme was hare brained from the very start and could never work in practice. And this is my whole point, the US is not a rational actor that operating on an evidence based doctrine.
You are again changing your story to fit whatever your current line of argumentation is. You've been using Ukraine/US/NATO interchangeably and saying that's not what I said whenever I'm actually attempting to clarify your argument.
If Ukraine is NATO, then this makes no sense because Ukraine has been shooting ballistic missiles into Russia since the war became hot, Ukraine has no nukes, proliferating a nuke to Ukraine for an ATACMS ranged attack would be the dumbest shit ever.
If the US is NATO, then this makes no sense because the US can simply nuke Russia.
If NATO is NATO, this still makes no sense because by itself NATO doesn't own nukes.
The reality is that Russia has no choice, it cannot actually escalate in a sensible way that doesn't leave itself open for global retaliation if Ukraine shoots ballistic missiles inside the country. The only realistic way to read their communique is if we lose and you don't let us lose on our terms we'll use nukes.
The Syrian GDP is about a tenth of what it was. The Syrian civil war has sent Syria 45+ years into the past. Jordan and Syria have literally switched places economically, which one was a regional ally of the US again? Sure Assad is holding on by his teeth, but Syria is a ruined country, it's economy prior to the civil war was literally 1/4 oil and 1/4 agriculture, both were wiped out entirely by the war. Syria also used to be a regional banking capital thanks to Assad neoliberalizing the economy, and all that capital fled during the war.
The US has ruined and degraded Syria, neutralized its regional power, and turned it into a destabilized interzone. The only worse level that Syria can go to is Libya's. That's literally a win. That's literally, if done to Russia, what the US would describe as a "good outcome" of the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin doesn't have to abdicate, he can simply be drowned in problems that take decades if not centuries to resolve without external help.
And before we do the BRICS is singing the internationale of post socialist countries bullshit, China isn't going to loan money to a Russia that was defeated in that way, because it's a high risk / low reward outcome for them.
I'm not changing any story. If you go back to the start of the discussion then you'll see that it's the same thing I keep trying to explain to you over and over throughout this thread. Meanwhile, you just keep making straw man arguments instead of engaging with what I'm saying.
The realistic way to read this is that Russia could retaliate using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and then the ball will be in NATO court where NATO has to decide if they want to escalate further towards a nuclear holocaust or back off. Both sides can play the escalation game.
Of course, Russia could also escalate asymmetrically, for example they could provide weapons to Yemen, Syria, and Iran that could shoot down stuff like F35s and get past AD. The US is incredibly exposed globally, and there are plenty of pressure points that Russia can exploit. This is the main reason I don't expect Russia to respond directly to strikes into its territory.
Yet, Syria is still a viable state and the US forces in the region are slowly being squeezed out. The point here was that the objective of getting a regime change in Syria failed. Again, if US couldn't even take down Syria, there was no hope of this working in Russia.
Meanwhile, you don't seem to understand the importance of Russia to China. Russia provides a shield in the west that prevents China being surrounded by NATO, and it provides China with the natural resources China needs meaning that it cannot be blockaded. These two factors make it vital to China that Russia stays stable and friendly to China. Which means there was absolutely no scenario where China could allow Russia to be defeated.
Yeah reading through this thread I'm getting very strong contrarian debatebro vibes from _pi. Constantly deflecting the topic of discussion and going on irrelevant tangents.
I wouldn't engage any further, this is just a waste of time.
lol yeah strong redditor vibes 😆
Damascus literally doesn't have on-demand electricity, it experiences blackouts daily. More than half the people of Syria are food insecure. 6+ million people have been displaced in the last decade. The fuck you mean viable state?
This conversation is just silly dude.
Are you claiming Syrian government is going to collapse in the foreseeable future, or you have some private definition of what a viable state is that you'd like to share with us here?
Yeah a viable state is capable of defending its borders, growing its economy, and developing quality of life for its citizens. Syria is failing on all 3 counts. Just because Assad can order people around doesn't make Syria a viable state.
Last I checked Syria is in a much better situation today than it was when US started trying to destabilize it. The economic situation is improving, and US presence there is not long for this world. Meanwhile, Assad has more popular support than any western regime leaders. If we apply your metric to the US then it's not a viable state either.
Damascus today literally has blackouts daily. The US started fucking with Syria after 9/11. The Syrian energy grid was gravely damaged in 2011.
Their GDP is not even hitting 2% growth by any realistic estimates, they're not releasing accurate data anyway. Some years in 2020-2024 the estimate of GDP growth is negative.
I mean, you should go to Damascus and try to express dissent against Assad.
This shit is silly dude.
You did not address the point I made which is that the situation has clearly improved. The fact that you can't even acknowledge this basic fact is astounding. Syria was on the verge of collapse with US backed extremists marching on Damascus. Today, the government is firmly in control of most of the territory and economy is stabilizing.
Same goes for Germany and most of the EU, what's your point here?
What point are you even trying to make here?
Yeah and you did not address the point I made which is the situation got gravely worse and is abjectly horrible
You love having a selective understanding of economics. Small underdeveloped economy, small percentage growth = very bad. Large global economy, small percentage growth = good. Remember how we were talking about global south markets in the other thread? What happened to all of that?
I was trying to make a joke, because attempting to qualify Assad support is the lulziest shit when he's effectively an absolute monarch of a ruin.
That's not the point being debated here. You claimed that Syria is not a viable state, and so far you haven't actually managed to defend that position.
I don't have a selective understanding of economics. Large global economy that was built on having cheap energy is now in serious trouble because it was cut off from it. Anybody who has a clue about economics would understand how dire the situation is for Germany. Their competitors now have much cheaper input costs, and companies are closing down and laying off people left and right as a result.
In fact, the global south markets are a big part of the reason why Germany is in trouble right now. Chinese companies are eating their lunch all over the world.