Sounds like this possible, expanded trade war would be more brutal for US consumers than for China. Snip:
Since Trump is expected to impose tariffs worldwide, this will only help China find willing buyers of its relatively cheaper products. Thus, Beijing will have a much less hard time finding new buyers than policymakers and media analysts in the US seem to believe at the moment. Despite the ‘trade war’ started by Trump and maintained by Biden, China’s total contribution to global exports is 17 per cent, up from 12 per cent during the first Trump presidency.
Where are these exports going? Of course, to the rest of the world. In the coming months, China will be keen to expand it even further in the Global South. Chinese giant Electric Vehicle makes, BYD, recently began its operations in Pakistan. This is just one example of a much broader pattern laying well beyond Washington’s capacity to hit and stall.
Therefore, while the Trump administration can start its ‘trade war 2.0.’, there is little denying that its immediate brutal impact will fall equally on US consumers, who will be forced to buy much more expensive products. Unlike the US, Beijing has already taken steps to help its people increase consumption, which will help offset the impact on exports. China’s recently unveiled US$1.4 trillion package is a key step that would help local governments deal with debts and consequently allow consumers to spend more. Increased domestic consumption means less reliance on exports in the long run. Beijing, in other words, is ready for the war. There are no indications that the US government and consumers are.
China could cease all exports to USA and not really even notice. It accounts for roughly 2.5% of China’s GDP. Starting a trade war with China would be like the USA pointing a gun at its own dick and pulling the trigger, purely out of spite.
i don't think we can assume capital would step in to prevent the administration from "damaging" the economy in this way. the most powerful capital formations (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) could limit their exposure to any trade war, and might even work to exploit the instability.
more or less, materially, the US would be fucked. china makes more steel than every other country on the planet combined. BRICS countries produce 68% of all steel. the US and all it's client states, vassals, proxies only make 16%. i don't see how any infrastructure or really almost even any construction continues here under a trade war. even if i am a billionaire freakshow who wants to build a prison-apartment complex that will print money for me from captive rents, i would probably adopt a "lets wait a year and see if this blows over" before i'm paying such a huge markup for materials. rather, if i wanted to make more billions, i be making scarcity worse by doing speculation and arbitrage with such resources.
