Even if we agree that everything I listed was predictable all along (which I don't think is fair, I mean there's Israel being an expansionist Apartheid state, and then there's the rest of the civil war proceeding as it did), it doesn't change anything I said. If you're making estimates on Dec 6th you aren't gonna be like 'it will be 1.5 million displaced people assuming the SAA folds without fighting a single battle'. You'll say 'considering the ongoing battles and the potential for further escalation, we estimate up to 1.5 million displaced people at this moment'.
Even if we agree that everything I listed was predictable all along (which I don't think is fair, I mean there's Israel being an expansionist Apartheid state, and then there's the rest of the civil war proceeding as it did), it doesn't change anything I said. If you're making estimates on Dec 6th you aren't gonna be like 'it will be 1.5 million displaced people assuming the SAA folds without fighting a single battle'. You'll say 'considering the ongoing battles and the potential for further escalation, we estimate up to 1.5 million displaced people at this moment'.
Like I said, I think 1.5 million is the lowest number, my expectation is that the actual number will be much higher.