If Biden overperforms less than half as much as Beto, Biden takes Texas.
On the ground, I've seen so many Biden signs in suburbs. It's crazy. I know every year libs be like "Texas is going blue," but I think it actually might. Just this cycle, though, and then our legislature will make sure it doesn't happen again.
Yeah but the polls don't work like that, they basically just bounce around at random. The pollsters are trying to hit moving targets (because people keep changing their political views and behavior) and they keep updating their methodology to try and keep up with it, so you never get long-term patterns developing. A big part of the reason why people were so convinced Hillary would win is because Obama pretty consistently outperformed his polls in the Midwest, but there was no reason to believe that would continue, and it didn't.
You always hear anecdotes like this, in both directions. It's not a useful indicator because (a) you aren't seeing a representative sample of signs across the state, (b) more enthusiastic voters are more likely to put up a sign, but they still only get one vote, and (c) some campaigns put more effort into getting yard signs out there than others.
Having said that, it's perfectly plausible that Texas goes blue, and it will almost certainly be within a few points of that. People always give historical patterns too much weight. If how people voted in the 90s had much bearing on how people vote now, then Virginia would be solidly red and West Virginia would be solidly blue. Conversely, if the polls are really off or something happens that shifts the race towards Trump, it's perfectly plausible that he wins his 2016 states plus Minnesota and Nevada.