If Biden overperforms less than half as much as Beto, Biden takes Texas.
On the ground, I've seen so many Biden signs in suburbs. It's crazy. I know every year libs be like "Texas is going blue," but I think it actually might. Just this cycle, though, and then our legislature will make sure it doesn't happen again.
if this happens it would permanently break all lib brains and they will literally never consider someone who isn't neoliberal again
Eh, they already wouldn't. Fuck em.
And our Republican courts and legislature will make sure 2024 is Texas Republican +30 if they can figure out how. They're just stumbling right now for reasons.
At this point, it's more likely that they win Ohio and lose Texas than the other way around.
Again, they control our legislature so they'll just make sure no brown person ever votes in this state again, but that wouldn't stop them from losing this time around.
Texas is one of the fastest growing states, and three of the five fastest growing cities are in Texas. It's going to happen eventually.
this is a bad thing, liberals are harder to convince to be commies than conservatives are
[X] Doubt
But if this were real, surely a bad loss might make conservatives more amenable for left radicalisation?
idk ive always had an easy way of convincing the libertarianesque ones
Don't get swept up in the polls I made that mistake last cycle. There's too many layers of propaganda and kickbacks involved in polling now.
Texas isn't going blue. Wish people would get that through their heads. Second worst voter suppression in the country is nothing to scoff at.
The only reason I disagree is because that voter suppression definitionally isn't targeted at white suburbs. Driving around white suburbs here both now and in 2016, it's amazing how many Joe and how few Trump signs I'm seeing.
I'm not saying it will turn, I'm saying it's very close and nobody's talking about it.
Go into the countryside, you'll see more Trump signs. GOP has reliable voters, The Dems don't. Yard signs might be a sign of desperation at this point.
If Biden overperforms less than half as much as Beto, Biden takes Texas.
Yeah but the polls don't work like that, they basically just bounce around at random. The pollsters are trying to hit moving targets (because people keep changing their political views and behavior) and they keep updating their methodology to try and keep up with it, so you never get long-term patterns developing. A big part of the reason why people were so convinced Hillary would win is because Obama pretty consistently outperformed his polls in the Midwest, but there was no reason to believe that would continue, and it didn't.
On the ground, I’ve seen so many Biden signs in suburbs.
You always hear anecdotes like this, in both directions. It's not a useful indicator because (a) you aren't seeing a representative sample of signs across the state, (b) more enthusiastic voters are more likely to put up a sign, but they still only get one vote, and (c) some campaigns put more effort into getting yard signs out there than others.
Having said that, it's perfectly plausible that Texas goes blue, and it will almost certainly be within a few points of that. People always give historical patterns too much weight. If how people voted in the 90s had much bearing on how people vote now, then Virginia would be solidly red and West Virginia would be solidly blue. Conversely, if the polls are really off or something happens that shifts the race towards Trump, it's perfectly plausible that he wins his 2016 states plus Minnesota and Nevada.
