See the full interview on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/posts/russias-party-on-87936354The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) is the second ...
Do you seriously think that Putin invaded Ukraine not knowing they would get sanctioned by the entire Western world and losing hundreds of billions of their oligarchs’ money?
I've heard people say that United Russia is made up of two main components - the Oligarchs and the Siloviki (the security and intelligence complex). Occasionally they struggle for power internally but since Putin is strongly of the silovik background, the oligarchs have been subordinated to the siloviki for a long time.
I don't understand the complexities of Russian politics enough to have a firm view, but it's possible that the Oligarchs losing a bunch of money (and therefore power) actually benefitted the Siloviki faction inside United Russia. That goes hand in hand with the idea that by sanctioning the Oligarchs, the West actually threw away their best chance at overthrowing Putin internally via some sort of Oligarch-backed coup.
Edit: preemptive apologies to Russian speakers for probably butchering the grammatical forms.
The fact is that both Merkel and Hollande (guarantors of Minsk II) have publicly admitted that Minsk was merely to buy time for Ukraine to militarize itself, and was not a serious attempt to pursue peace between both countries.
Nitpick but I see this claim a lot but I don't buy it. Mostly because I don't believe Germany would plan so heavily around Russian gas if it knew the war was inevitable. I'm inclined to think they're impling it to look like they knew what they were doing and cover their own asses for negotiating a failed agreement, while appealing to an audience that is (for the most part) uncritically supportive of Ukraine. I also think its a pretty big stretch to characterize their words as "publically admitting it was not a serious agreement." What Merkel said was,
Then, in order to prevent even worse things, everyone signed this agreement. Was it possible to stop the war then? This question is no longer relevant. I believe that the Minsk agreements gave Ukraine more time to develop between 2014 and 2021.
What she's saying is that regardless of whether or not it was possible to achieve peace through the negotiations, they were still beneficial to Ukraine in buying time. That's not the same thing as saying they were done in bad faith.
I think the Russian charactization of this quote is trying to paint a picture of Western governments as highly co-ordinated, when the reality is more complex. Germany isn't holding Ukraine's leash, the US had to blow uo Nord Stream because the Germans weren't willing to co-operate, etc. There's bumbling, competing interests at play.
I've had this conversation before but I find it extremely implausible that the West planned all of this out in advance and the lynchpin of the entire plot was being able to destroy Russia with sanctions alone. Again, Germany wasn't even willing to fully participate, and they had to resort to some pretty desperate measures after the pipeline was destroyed. Nothing was done to ensure India's cooperation, and they were saber-rattling with China, neither of which makes sense if they were planning on all this.
I also haven't heard any real explanation for what caused this miscalculation, other than pure stupidity and buying into their own propaganda. I think this is the same flawed analysis behind the initial point that I disputed. When a politician says something you can't just take it at face value, even when it fits into your narrative and makes them look bad, you still have to consider why they're saying it, what they're trying to accomplish, and who they're trying to appeal to. When they started doing sanctions, obviously they would say they thought they would work, but this indicates nothing about their actual beliefs. They were just trying to drum up support for the sanctions, there's no reason why they'd say, "Well, who knows if these will work or not" if they're trying to get people to support them. Very rarely do politicians say something just because they think it's true.
The narrative that fits actual events better without requiring abject stupidity and actions contrary to the actors' own interests, is that Germany did not expect a full scale war and did not plan for losing Nord Stream 2. The outbreak of war came as a surprise to a lot of people, including the majority of this site, and Merkel did not have a crystal ball. The ceasefire was broken due to domestic pressure from the far-right, plus international pressure from the US, which did not assume sanctions would work, but rather saw extended bloodshed as a possibility and did not care, due to the profits it would mean for the military-industrial complex and not caring at all about the lives of Ukrainians. There are internal fractures within NATO and within NATO states, due to competing class interests, it's not one big conspiracy working together.
Why do you think it would need to be a conspiracy?
Because you're assuming coordination between different groups, even when it doesn't make sense and goes against their interests. This is like the third time I've brought this up - Germany relied heavily on Russian gas, then didn't shut it off, which led the US to blow up the pipeline. How do any of those events make sense in your narrative? Is all of that part of an elaborate ruse to trick people into thinking that my narrative is correct and yours is wrong? It's nonsense.
The Europeans simply didn’t see Russia as a potent threat and felt entitled to not giving Russia the respect it deserves.
And this is where I think your narrative is coming from. It's all about Russia surpassing everyone's expectations and proving how strong and powerful it is, and it's like, every event has to be somehow contorted to fit that narrative, when there's much more coherent ways to fit them together.
Tbh, it just seems like this is what you want to believe, in which case I can't stop you. You're not looking at countries' actions and you're also not looking at class interests, it's just "everybody hated Russia and thought they were weak when they were actually big and strong." It's a very biased and oversimplified narrative that I find hard to take seriously, I'm just as skeptical of that as I would be about one that's brazenly pro-Ukraine tbh.
Russia was following Minsk 2 much, much closer than Ukraine was, who had tens of thousands of cease fire violations. Its not a “both sides didn’t follow it” situation. It’s a “one side was acting in bad faith to buy time to militarize and always fully intended to attack eventually vs. the other side just didn’t want to have to deal with the whole situation and wanted it to chill out”
No they didnt. The obama regime was already thretening european companies that planned to invest in iran after the deal was suposedly in effect and before trump won.
This always seems like a poorly based position to me. All Russia wants would've been guaranteed by successful implementation of the agreement. What part of the Minsk agreements did Russia not adhere to?
the invasion was a terrible idea that has greatly harmed Russia and Russian interests
speaking a bit soon, aren't we? Also we'll never get to see what the alternative was.
VASTLY worsened Russia's strategic position vis a vis the west.
USSR asked to join NATO in 1954. They were told "no." Then NATO let west germany in and appointed a bunch of "former" nazis to key positions. Russia tried to join NATO in 2002. Were told "no." Russia supported America in its reactionary "war on terror." and that still didn't tighten Russia's relationship with "the west." turns out the only thing that can make Russia have a better relationship with the west is balkanizing themselves, breaking up into dozens of tiny republics, and privatizing everything, because the west's vision for Yugoslavia is the same vision it has for Russia. Turns out there is nothing Russia can do to have a better relationship with the west. Because the west isn't mutually interested in a better relationship. The west is interested in balkanizing and privatizing former soviet nations. To punish them for having the audacity for being socialist once upon a time. To make sure it never happens again. To turn them into neocolonies. Ukraine has tried to have a better relationship with the west. What did it get them? It got them to sacrifice themselves by the thousands in a western proxy war in exchange for not even a NATO membership. Ukraine is getting balkanized and privatized on NATO's behalf.
Oh, and the sanctions? They aren't working. Russia is still selling gas to Europe, just through third parties. The entire situation is a reactionary shitshow, and the chief responsibility lies with the imperial core for deliberately instigating the conflict for years and years and years. Russia's options were to allow itself to get slowly encircled, or to ruin its "reputation" with a bunch of reactionary capitalist nations. It chose the latter.
Russia is reactionary and capitalist too? No shit! How did that happen? The west was gleeful when the Russian federation came into existence.
there was no good moves for russia, even fewer for ukraine. i don't think of it in terms of good moves. I think of it in terms of russia and ukraine as they currently exist both being byproducts of imperialism.
Also I don't think we can really know if it chose the better of two bad moves because we cannot see what the alternative would have been, we can only speculate. I thought that was clear in the last post.
There is no evidence that Russia ever seriously meant to give up its influence over the D/LPRs.
Minsk what? Ok no evidenc-Minsk 2 what?
Ya'll could have a Minsk 3 and then 4 years of ukraine bombing people they supposedly want to reintegrate into their country and still find it hard to fault the ukranian state
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I've heard people say that United Russia is made up of two main components - the Oligarchs and the Siloviki (the security and intelligence complex). Occasionally they struggle for power internally but since Putin is strongly of the silovik background, the oligarchs have been subordinated to the siloviki for a long time.
I don't understand the complexities of Russian politics enough to have a firm view, but it's possible that the Oligarchs losing a bunch of money (and therefore power) actually benefitted the Siloviki faction inside United Russia. That goes hand in hand with the idea that by sanctioning the Oligarchs, the West actually threw away their best chance at overthrowing Putin internally via some sort of Oligarch-backed coup.
Edit: preemptive apologies to Russian speakers for probably butchering the grammatical forms.
Nitpick but I see this claim a lot but I don't buy it. Mostly because I don't believe Germany would plan so heavily around Russian gas if it knew the war was inevitable. I'm inclined to think they're impling it to look like they knew what they were doing and cover their own asses for negotiating a failed agreement, while appealing to an audience that is (for the most part) uncritically supportive of Ukraine. I also think its a pretty big stretch to characterize their words as "publically admitting it was not a serious agreement." What Merkel said was,
What she's saying is that regardless of whether or not it was possible to achieve peace through the negotiations, they were still beneficial to Ukraine in buying time. That's not the same thing as saying they were done in bad faith.
I think the Russian charactization of this quote is trying to paint a picture of Western governments as highly co-ordinated, when the reality is more complex. Germany isn't holding Ukraine's leash, the US had to blow uo Nord Stream because the Germans weren't willing to co-operate, etc. There's bumbling, competing interests at play.
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I've had this conversation before but I find it extremely implausible that the West planned all of this out in advance and the lynchpin of the entire plot was being able to destroy Russia with sanctions alone. Again, Germany wasn't even willing to fully participate, and they had to resort to some pretty desperate measures after the pipeline was destroyed. Nothing was done to ensure India's cooperation, and they were saber-rattling with China, neither of which makes sense if they were planning on all this.
I also haven't heard any real explanation for what caused this miscalculation, other than pure stupidity and buying into their own propaganda. I think this is the same flawed analysis behind the initial point that I disputed. When a politician says something you can't just take it at face value, even when it fits into your narrative and makes them look bad, you still have to consider why they're saying it, what they're trying to accomplish, and who they're trying to appeal to. When they started doing sanctions, obviously they would say they thought they would work, but this indicates nothing about their actual beliefs. They were just trying to drum up support for the sanctions, there's no reason why they'd say, "Well, who knows if these will work or not" if they're trying to get people to support them. Very rarely do politicians say something just because they think it's true.
The narrative that fits actual events better without requiring abject stupidity and actions contrary to the actors' own interests, is that Germany did not expect a full scale war and did not plan for losing Nord Stream 2. The outbreak of war came as a surprise to a lot of people, including the majority of this site, and Merkel did not have a crystal ball. The ceasefire was broken due to domestic pressure from the far-right, plus international pressure from the US, which did not assume sanctions would work, but rather saw extended bloodshed as a possibility and did not care, due to the profits it would mean for the military-industrial complex and not caring at all about the lives of Ukrainians. There are internal fractures within NATO and within NATO states, due to competing class interests, it's not one big conspiracy working together.
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Because you're assuming coordination between different groups, even when it doesn't make sense and goes against their interests. This is like the third time I've brought this up - Germany relied heavily on Russian gas, then didn't shut it off, which led the US to blow up the pipeline. How do any of those events make sense in your narrative? Is all of that part of an elaborate ruse to trick people into thinking that my narrative is correct and yours is wrong? It's nonsense.
And this is where I think your narrative is coming from. It's all about Russia surpassing everyone's expectations and proving how strong and powerful it is, and it's like, every event has to be somehow contorted to fit that narrative, when there's much more coherent ways to fit them together.
Tbh, it just seems like this is what you want to believe, in which case I can't stop you. You're not looking at countries' actions and you're also not looking at class interests, it's just "everybody hated Russia and thought they were weak when they were actually big and strong." It's a very biased and oversimplified narrative that I find hard to take seriously, I'm just as skeptical of that as I would be about one that's brazenly pro-Ukraine tbh.
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Both sides pro-imperialist nonsense akin to "Both sides never seriously intended to follow the Iran deal" to defend ripping it up
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Russia was following Minsk 2 much, much closer than Ukraine was, who had tens of thousands of cease fire violations. Its not a “both sides didn’t follow it” situation. It’s a “one side was acting in bad faith to buy time to militarize and always fully intended to attack eventually vs. the other side just didn’t want to have to deal with the whole situation and wanted it to chill out”
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@ThomasMuentzner@hexbear.net
I saw you posting the data on ceasefire violations running up to the invasion, can you post this here?
No they didnt. The obama regime was already thretening european companies that planned to invest in iran after the deal was suposedly in effect and before trump won.
This always seems like a poorly based position to me. All Russia wants would've been guaranteed by successful implementation of the agreement. What part of the Minsk agreements did Russia not adhere to?
speaking a bit soon, aren't we? Also we'll never get to see what the alternative was.
USSR asked to join NATO in 1954. They were told "no." Then NATO let west germany in and appointed a bunch of "former" nazis to key positions. Russia tried to join NATO in 2002. Were told "no." Russia supported America in its reactionary "war on terror." and that still didn't tighten Russia's relationship with "the west." turns out the only thing that can make Russia have a better relationship with the west is balkanizing themselves, breaking up into dozens of tiny republics, and privatizing everything, because the west's vision for Yugoslavia is the same vision it has for Russia. Turns out there is nothing Russia can do to have a better relationship with the west. Because the west isn't mutually interested in a better relationship. The west is interested in balkanizing and privatizing former soviet nations. To punish them for having the audacity for being socialist once upon a time. To make sure it never happens again. To turn them into neocolonies. Ukraine has tried to have a better relationship with the west. What did it get them? It got them to sacrifice themselves by the thousands in a western proxy war in exchange for not even a NATO membership. Ukraine is getting balkanized and privatized on NATO's behalf.
Oh, and the sanctions? They aren't working. Russia is still selling gas to Europe, just through third parties. The entire situation is a reactionary shitshow, and the chief responsibility lies with the imperial core for deliberately instigating the conflict for years and years and years. Russia's options were to allow itself to get slowly encircled, or to ruin its "reputation" with a bunch of reactionary capitalist nations. It chose the latter.
Russia is reactionary and capitalist too? No shit! How did that happen? The west was gleeful when the Russian federation came into existence.
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there was no good moves for russia, even fewer for ukraine. i don't think of it in terms of good moves. I think of it in terms of russia and ukraine as they currently exist both being byproducts of imperialism.
Also I don't think we can really know if it chose the better of two bad moves because we cannot see what the alternative would have been, we can only speculate. I thought that was clear in the last post.
Minsk what? Ok no evidenc-Minsk 2 what?
Ya'll could have a Minsk 3 and then 4 years of ukraine bombing people they supposedly want to reintegrate into their country and still find it hard to fault the ukranian state
Do you have a source for Putin saying he wanted to return donbass to Ukraine? I can't find it on Google.
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