What’s actually possible as part of negotiations? This would be (an) ideal outcome to me (but is still never going to happen):
my general ideal framework for a potential peace agreement is obnoxiously long so I put it in this spoiler
1) Ukraine agrees to commit to purging their military and government of white supremacists (and Russia agrees to do the same! Although I think you’ll find that they wont have nearly the same kind of problem). This includes any official or officer who has said things like Russians being “Asian” or some other nazi dogwhistle bs like that. Oh and also anyone who has glorified Bandera in anyway, they’ve got to go too (he is seriously irredeemable, please look up the history of the OUN and all the truly horrible white supremacist shit they did)
2) Ukraine agrees to never attempt to join Nato again because of Russia’s valid security concerns. This is probably by far the most important measure, and it should be put into the agreement that any attempts to skirt around this will be met with military force.
3) After maybe a year to give everything time to settle down, all territory that Russia either fully or partially occupies is given a referendum on whether they want to be fully reintegrated into Ukraine, reintegrated but given autonomy, integrated into Russia but given autonomy, or fully integrated into Russia. As part of this Ukraine must also demilitarize to a certain extent so they don’t just start shelling any autonomous territories like they did before. Ukraine must also give up any claim to these territories that vote to integrate as part of Russia, including Crimea.
4) Russia agrees to help de-mine/de-bomb both Ukrainian territory and newly integrated Russian territory (NATO should also be a part of this particular part, but good luck getting them to actually help once the war is over)
5) Russia commits to a plan to help reunite families torn apart by the war, and both governments set up a plan to support war orphans so they don’t fall into human trafficking rings.
6) Russia helps Ukraine re-establish its peacetime agricultural production in return for certain economic trade agreements remaining favorable to Russia for a certain period of time.
7) Finally a joint commission to investigate war crimes committed by either of the 2 sides, and agreeing to abide by their findings.
(Final notes: As a part of #3 it will only be a ceasefire until certain things are completed, and would be broken by obvious signs of aggression etc. etc.)
I doubt any of this will actually happen because Ukraine’s government has been instructed by its western masters supplying it with all of its weaponry to not negotiate or else they will cut their weapon supply off, which will immediately weaken their position at any negotiating table with Russia.
an even longer obnoxiously long explanation of my position
These probably seems overly favorable to Russia, and they are favorable towards them, because they’re well positioned to win any war of attrition, so they’re in no hurry to give favorable terms to Ukraine, but I also laid out some propositions that would benefit Ukraine. Honestly, a few of my propositions may even be too favorable to Ukraine for what the Russian government would be willing to accept. Also, they help Ukrainian proles, not bourgeois really, so the Ukrainian government may not even like those propositions that are supposed to be favorable towards Ukraine! Still, this is roughly what I would hope to see coming out of a peace agreement between the two.
If you really can’t accept that these are the best terms Ukraine could get, I’ll just say they should have accepted the peace deal (and its much more favorable terms) a year ago before good ole Boris Johnson meddled and convinced them they could either win or get better terms later somehow. Every month that they wait their position gets weaker, and the terms will be more and more favorable to Russia. I would prefer that tens of thousands of more Ukrainians and Russians not die just for Russia to have better terms for Ukraine’s inevitable surrender, so ideally they should negotiate now, not then. The only way the tide of this war turns is if NATO actually gets directly involved, and I would really hope that we don’t risk nuclear annihilation over a war between two bourgeois-led states.
We could argue about the inevitability of Ukraine’s defeat, I guess, but I seriously doubt either of us are well educated on military affairs so that would be a pointless argument, I’m pretty much just having to go based off of what people I trust say in this field and do what little research I can to make sure they’re not just completely making something up.
My final statement is that I’ve seen convincing arguments that even if Zelensky tried to negotiate at this point, the fascists he’s surrounded himself with would just kill him and take power to keep the war going, so this is all could just be useless speculating anyways.
Ah you’re too kind, I think I ramble a bit much when I try to write out effort posts which is why I used the spoilers to make it easier to ignore my rambling haha
Like snap my fingers ideal? What @ZoomeristLeninist@hexbear.net said.
What’s actually possible as part of negotiations? This would be (an) ideal outcome to me (but is still never going to happen):
my general ideal framework for a potential peace agreement is obnoxiously long so I put it in this spoiler
1) Ukraine agrees to commit to purging their military and government of white supremacists (and Russia agrees to do the same! Although I think you’ll find that they wont have nearly the same kind of problem). This includes any official or officer who has said things like Russians being “Asian” or some other nazi dogwhistle bs like that. Oh and also anyone who has glorified Bandera in anyway, they’ve got to go too (he is seriously irredeemable, please look up the history of the OUN and all the truly horrible white supremacist shit they did)
2) Ukraine agrees to never attempt to join Nato again because of Russia’s valid security concerns. This is probably by far the most important measure, and it should be put into the agreement that any attempts to skirt around this will be met with military force.
3) After maybe a year to give everything time to settle down, all territory that Russia either fully or partially occupies is given a referendum on whether they want to be fully reintegrated into Ukraine, reintegrated but given autonomy, integrated into Russia but given autonomy, or fully integrated into Russia. As part of this Ukraine must also demilitarize to a certain extent so they don’t just start shelling any autonomous territories like they did before. Ukraine must also give up any claim to these territories that vote to integrate as part of Russia, including Crimea.
4) Russia agrees to help de-mine/de-bomb both Ukrainian territory and newly integrated Russian territory (NATO should also be a part of this particular part, but good luck getting them to actually help once the war is over)
5) Russia commits to a plan to help reunite families torn apart by the war, and both governments set up a plan to support war orphans so they don’t fall into human trafficking rings.
6) Russia helps Ukraine re-establish its peacetime agricultural production in return for certain economic trade agreements remaining favorable to Russia for a certain period of time.
7) Finally a joint commission to investigate war crimes committed by either of the 2 sides, and agreeing to abide by their findings.
(Final notes: As a part of #3 it will only be a ceasefire until certain things are completed, and would be broken by obvious signs of aggression etc. etc.)
I doubt any of this will actually happen because Ukraine’s government has been instructed by its western masters supplying it with all of its weaponry to not negotiate or else they will cut their weapon supply off, which will immediately weaken their position at any negotiating table with Russia.
an even longer obnoxiously long explanation of my position
These probably seems overly favorable to Russia, and they are favorable towards them, because they’re well positioned to win any war of attrition, so they’re in no hurry to give favorable terms to Ukraine, but I also laid out some propositions that would benefit Ukraine. Honestly, a few of my propositions may even be too favorable to Ukraine for what the Russian government would be willing to accept. Also, they help Ukrainian proles, not bourgeois really, so the Ukrainian government may not even like those propositions that are supposed to be favorable towards Ukraine! Still, this is roughly what I would hope to see coming out of a peace agreement between the two.
If you really can’t accept that these are the best terms Ukraine could get, I’ll just say they should have accepted the peace deal (and its much more favorable terms) a year ago before good ole Boris Johnson meddled and convinced them they could either win or get better terms later somehow. Every month that they wait their position gets weaker, and the terms will be more and more favorable to Russia. I would prefer that tens of thousands of more Ukrainians and Russians not die just for Russia to have better terms for Ukraine’s inevitable surrender, so ideally they should negotiate now, not then. The only way the tide of this war turns is if NATO actually gets directly involved, and I would really hope that we don’t risk nuclear annihilation over a war between two bourgeois-led states.
We could argue about the inevitability of Ukraine’s defeat, I guess, but I seriously doubt either of us are well educated on military affairs so that would be a pointless argument, I’m pretty much just having to go based off of what people I trust say in this field and do what little research I can to make sure they’re not just completely making something up.
My final statement is that I’ve seen convincing arguments that even if Zelensky tried to negotiate at this point, the fascists he’s surrounded himself with would just kill him and take power to keep the war going, so this is all could just be useless speculating anyways.
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Ah you’re too kind, I think I ramble a bit much when I try to write out effort posts which is why I used the spoilers to make it easier to ignore my rambling haha
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Ah thank you again then
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