As much as the NYT sucks - you're interpreting the "Path To Victory" tool incorrectly. It's not providing a probability of victory - but rather, a count of the number of total paths. The New York Time counts the paths, but says nothing about how probable a path is. Imagine flipping 15 coins for the 15 states - and getting each possible combination of coinflips. Calling coin 1 heads would remove all combinations where coin 1 isn't heads - and so on. There's no commentary on the actual probability a certain coin actually flips heads or not.
If the remaining states (not TX, FL, GA, and NC) all had a 50-50 chance to go for any candidate (each remaining path equally likely), then Trump would have a 60% percent chance.
As much as the NYT sucks - you're interpreting the "Path To Victory" tool incorrectly. It's not providing a probability of victory - but rather, a count of the number of total paths. The New York Time counts the paths, but says nothing about how probable a path is. Imagine flipping 15 coins for the 15 states - and getting each possible combination of coinflips. Calling coin 1 heads would remove all combinations where coin 1 isn't heads - and so on. There's no commentary on the actual probability a certain coin actually flips heads or not.
If the remaining states (not TX, FL, GA, and NC) all had a 50-50 chance to go for any candidate (each remaining path equally likely), then Trump would have a 60% percent chance.
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