The Israel Defense Forces have in recent weeks been instructed to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. will conduct a military strike against Iran before President Trump leaves office, senior Israeli officials tell me.
The Israeli government instructed the IDF to undertake the preparations not because of any intelligence or assessment that Trump will order such a strike, but because senior Israeli officials anticipate “a very sensitive period” ahead of Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20.
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Senior Israeli officials tell me they expect Israel will get prior notice ahead of any U.S. strike against Iran. But they're concerned that won't be sufficient to fully prepare. Thus the order to the IDF to start taking preparatory steps under the assumption that such a scenario is possible.
Yeah I don't think actually occupying Iran would go any better than occupying Iraq (probably much worse) but the big question is whether an occupation is the aim. If, on the other hand, destruction and societal and economic collapse à la Libya is the aim then I think it's very achievable for the Pentagon. I've read about the exercise before but no one knows if a) Iran would employ the same strategy, b) employ it as efficiently and c) the US military has not learned anything from it it and updated it's doctrine accordingly. After all almost 2 decades have passed since and staff have come and went.
As for the last point in order to escalate into a "world war" there have to be roughly equal international opponents. Who would even be opposing US atrocities here besides Iran itself and possibly a few feeble non-state actors sponsored by Iran?