Which therefore means it cannot work like any other ballistic missile…
According to Wikipedia, the DF-21's reentry vehicle looks similar to the US military's Pershing 2 RV, the later of which has control surfaces and is able to pull up to 25G maneuvers in atmosphere, which is comparable to some AAMs like the Soviet R-60 or mid-cold war variants of the US AIM-9 sidewinder. Assuming the DF-21 is at least as maneuverable as the Pershing 2, then it should theoretically be able to hit a maneuvering carrier, assuming the initial trajectory put it close enough to the ship. This would also somewhat solve the problem of ballistic missiles being easy to detect, since it could theoretically be able to make evasive maneuvers to dodge anti-ballistic missile systems.
Ballistic missile launches are easy to detect and their trajectories are predictable.
Aside from maneuvering, the missile also has two other things working for it that would make it harder to counter: it has a mobile launcher, and it probably runs a relatively low risk of being picked up by NORAD or other land based early warning radar systems, due to the fact that the missile is relatively short range, and generally only going to be used against targets that are close to China. This means that US fleets being targeted by the missile are going to be mostly on their own when it come to detecting and countering incoming DF-21s, and due to the mobile launcher, they also can't have any preset interception courses since they won't know where exactly the missile is going to come from. On top of that, China has even recently developed an air-launch version capable of being mounted on the H-6K bomber, which would further increase the unpredictability of where the missile is coming from, though this version isn't going to be in service for a few more years. Also, the short range of the missile works in its favor as well, since it means that its flight time is going to be much less than that of an ICBM for example.
unanswered question of how the KV does terminal guidance and how well it can hit an evading carrier
In terms of terminal guidance, Wikipedia lists terminal active radar guidance, which probably means the KV is able to just lock on to the largest object it can find and head towards it, assuming the initial trajectory was accurate enough to put the carrier in the radar's field of view. The skepticism about whether it can actually hit the carrier is warranted though, as the DF-21 hasn't yet been tested against targets moving at speed. Electronic counter measures are another issue. The Russian military has come to the conclusion that ECM is the only way in which the DF-21 can be defeated, which is a big positive in terms of the missile's ability to get past all other forms of evading it or shooting it down, but if it's able to be countered just with radar jamming or chaff, then it would still be a massively flawed weapon. However, I couldn't find anything about how easy it is to fool the missile with ECM.
The question isn't whether the KV can maneuver to hit a moving target, the question is how the KV gets real-time terminal guidance to that moving target, so it knows exactly where to maneuver to. It's doing reentry so it cannot see in front of it; radar is blinded, never mind the visible or IR spectrums. Some kind of satellite relay from earth or space based radars is possible but whether they have developed that capability isn't known.
Also, large ballistic missile launches will always be easy to detect by satellite so long as they burn fuckloads of fuel. As for radar, the navy wouldn't be relying on ground based radar in the first place, carrier groups will have multiple ships with AEGIS radars and they've been tweaking some of them for ballistic missile defense since at least the Bush administration. It's gonna be detected.
It comes down to how quickly the American carrier can react versus if and how the KV can react to evasive maneuvers, and both of those questions involve things we just don't know.
The question isn’t whether the KV can maneuver to hit a moving target, the question is how the KV gets real-time terminal guidance to that moving target, so it knows exactly where to maneuver to. It’s doing reentry so it cannot see in front of it; radar is blinded, never mind the visible or IR spectrums.
From what I could find, the missile doesn't go straight down in the terminal phase, rather it levels out in atmosphere near where the target is and then goes straight down when it gets over it, which would give the KV much more time to look for its target without interference.
As for radar, the navy wouldn’t be relying on ground based radar in the first place, carrier groups will have multiple ships with AEGIS radars and they’ve been tweaking some of them for ballistic missile defense since at least the Bush administration. It’s gonna be detected.
This is correct, and I should have been a bit more clear. In terms of detection, its always going to get detected no matter what, but when it gets detected matters as to how much it can be countered. ICBMs are easy to detect since they go hundreds or even thousands of kilometers into the sky, which means that often they are going to be well above the enemy's horizon for upwards of 10 minutes, and thus give a decent amount of reaction time. Short and medium range ballistic missiles are obviously going to be above the enemy's horizon for a much shorter period of time, which in turn gives a shorter window to react to the incoming threat. Add in the fact that the missile could come from an unexpected direction, and this could lower reaction time even more.
In terms of ship based missile detection, I know ships have their own radar system that are easily capable of detecting incoming missiles, my thinking was that ship based radar has to be more general purpose and looks for multiple types of threats, where as land based anti-ballistic missile early warning radars are more specialized towards only looking for incoming BMs when they are hundreds of kilometers above the earth's surface. But you are correct, ships radars should be just as good as land based radar in this scenario since ships have shot down satellites before, and the trajectory of a short/medium range ballistic missile is going to be much lower than an ICBM, meaning that detection range shouldn't be an issue.
According to Wikipedia, the DF-21's reentry vehicle looks similar to the US military's Pershing 2 RV, the later of which has control surfaces and is able to pull up to 25G maneuvers in atmosphere, which is comparable to some AAMs like the Soviet R-60 or mid-cold war variants of the US AIM-9 sidewinder. Assuming the DF-21 is at least as maneuverable as the Pershing 2, then it should theoretically be able to hit a maneuvering carrier, assuming the initial trajectory put it close enough to the ship. This would also somewhat solve the problem of ballistic missiles being easy to detect, since it could theoretically be able to make evasive maneuvers to dodge anti-ballistic missile systems.
Aside from maneuvering, the missile also has two other things working for it that would make it harder to counter: it has a mobile launcher, and it probably runs a relatively low risk of being picked up by NORAD or other land based early warning radar systems, due to the fact that the missile is relatively short range, and generally only going to be used against targets that are close to China. This means that US fleets being targeted by the missile are going to be mostly on their own when it come to detecting and countering incoming DF-21s, and due to the mobile launcher, they also can't have any preset interception courses since they won't know where exactly the missile is going to come from. On top of that, China has even recently developed an air-launch version capable of being mounted on the H-6K bomber, which would further increase the unpredictability of where the missile is coming from, though this version isn't going to be in service for a few more years. Also, the short range of the missile works in its favor as well, since it means that its flight time is going to be much less than that of an ICBM for example.
In terms of terminal guidance, Wikipedia lists terminal active radar guidance, which probably means the KV is able to just lock on to the largest object it can find and head towards it, assuming the initial trajectory was accurate enough to put the carrier in the radar's field of view. The skepticism about whether it can actually hit the carrier is warranted though, as the DF-21 hasn't yet been tested against targets moving at speed. Electronic counter measures are another issue. The Russian military has come to the conclusion that ECM is the only way in which the DF-21 can be defeated, which is a big positive in terms of the missile's ability to get past all other forms of evading it or shooting it down, but if it's able to be countered just with radar jamming or chaff, then it would still be a massively flawed weapon. However, I couldn't find anything about how easy it is to fool the missile with ECM.
The question isn't whether the KV can maneuver to hit a moving target, the question is how the KV gets real-time terminal guidance to that moving target, so it knows exactly where to maneuver to. It's doing reentry so it cannot see in front of it; radar is blinded, never mind the visible or IR spectrums. Some kind of satellite relay from earth or space based radars is possible but whether they have developed that capability isn't known.
Also, large ballistic missile launches will always be easy to detect by satellite so long as they burn fuckloads of fuel. As for radar, the navy wouldn't be relying on ground based radar in the first place, carrier groups will have multiple ships with AEGIS radars and they've been tweaking some of them for ballistic missile defense since at least the Bush administration. It's gonna be detected.
It comes down to how quickly the American carrier can react versus if and how the KV can react to evasive maneuvers, and both of those questions involve things we just don't know.
From what I could find, the missile doesn't go straight down in the terminal phase, rather it levels out in atmosphere near where the target is and then goes straight down when it gets over it, which would give the KV much more time to look for its target without interference.
This is correct, and I should have been a bit more clear. In terms of detection, its always going to get detected no matter what, but when it gets detected matters as to how much it can be countered. ICBMs are easy to detect since they go hundreds or even thousands of kilometers into the sky, which means that often they are going to be well above the enemy's horizon for upwards of 10 minutes, and thus give a decent amount of reaction time. Short and medium range ballistic missiles are obviously going to be above the enemy's horizon for a much shorter period of time, which in turn gives a shorter window to react to the incoming threat. Add in the fact that the missile could come from an unexpected direction, and this could lower reaction time even more.
In terms of ship based missile detection, I know ships have their own radar system that are easily capable of detecting incoming missiles, my thinking was that ship based radar has to be more general purpose and looks for multiple types of threats, where as land based anti-ballistic missile early warning radars are more specialized towards only looking for incoming BMs when they are hundreds of kilometers above the earth's surface. But you are correct, ships radars should be just as good as land based radar in this scenario since ships have shot down satellites before, and the trajectory of a short/medium range ballistic missile is going to be much lower than an ICBM, meaning that detection range shouldn't be an issue.