Around a decade seems like a realistic time frame to me. In my opinion, two big factors driving the collapse are climate change and the rise of BRICS.
US is seeing an increasing number of environmental disasters every year, and this puts pressure on the already ailing infrastructure. Changing climate is also causing droughts that will make large parts of the country unlivable leading to internal migrations of millions of people. The droughts are also causing harvest failures that will eventually result in food shortages. US farming practices also contribute to the problem because they cause soil erosion. I expect that these factors will significantly accelerate the internal conflict within US that's currently building.
Meanwhile, BRICS is creating an alternative economy that's outside western control and that necessarily means that the dollar based economy is now shrinking. Much of the wealth in US and other western countries comes from exploitation of the Global South, and when that stops there's going to be a huge economic disaster in the west.
What internal conflicts are you referring to? A potential civil war triggered by the far right?
That's certainly an increasingly real possibility. In general, US society is becoming highly polarized and tribal. The mainstream is now split into two camps that see each other as the source of all the problems. The worse the material conditions get the more radicalized people will become, and eventually that will result in violence. US could end up in a Rwandan style civil war at some point.
First it started falling over, then it fell over.
Take your pick. Poverty rate, child poverty in particular, child poverty skyrocketing, child slavery skyrocketing too, life expectancy plummeting... etc. failed state.
I don't think "failed state" applies. The US government still has full sovereignty over its territories and there is no competing force that has any political or military claim that could realistically contend with the existing state apparatus. Is it a brutal and exploitative state with a fully frayed safety net? Yes. But a failed state? No.
Do you think its starving citizens consider it to be successful?
By what measure do you see it as successful? Because it has "no competing force that has any political or military claim that could realistically contend with the existing state apparatus"? Is that the metric?
"Failed state" has a specific definition. We don't have roving bands of militia outcompeting the US military, nor do we have separatist political groups forming competing governing structures within US territory. Although there are many Americans who are in poverty, the vast majority of Americans are not starving.
We don’t have roving bands of militia outcompeting the US military, nor do we have separatist political groups forming competing governing structures within US territory.
I honestly thought you had both these things? Well not outcompeteing the military no, but aren't there confederate secessionists?
Although there are many Americans who are in poverty, the vast majority of Americans are not starving.
In the richest country in the world, not everyone is starving. Good job.
I feel like I am detecting a level of snark here that is unnecessary and unproductive. I will not argue with you. Be well, comrade.
It could collapse tomorrow or decades, if not centuries from now. Let's hope for the former. The collapse of the USA will undoubtedly make the world a better place.
Nuclear war would sterilise the planet. I wouldn't even count on bacteria and fungi to survive
West is going to collapse soon. I will give it 10-15 years. This Ukraine war has exposed all the evils of western democracy and mainstream "left" . For westerners its either be fascism or socialism .
I think the most important thing is the Ukraine war showed what a paper tiger the west is. I don't think we would see the resistance in west Africa if it weren't for the war, for example. The US doesn't seem so all-powerful to the global South anymore.
What counts as the end of the US? Did Rome end when the city proper was sacked, or when Constantiople fell?
If the US balkanizes would that be the end? Or maybe when DC falls to a foreign power or collapses and loses influence over the states and territories?
I suspect we'll have something that calls itself the United States for a long time to come in any case
I don't know but think in 20 years. Hope Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam and Mariana islands will secede before that.
Not too much longer, hopefully.
There seems to be a simultaneous development of incredible animosity towards the state AND fascist appeal (at least around me) so it could go either way.
As other commenters have pointed out, the full takeover of fascists (going mask-off, I mean. We already are fascist obviously) does not mean the end of the USA. I do think, though, that the victory of Trump assuming it happens will speed up the reaction/revolt to the fascistic state in some accelerationist way. Can't imagine USian society wouldn't react to that in some way moreso than a Joe Biden flavor of fascism.
Hard to put a date on it. Could be next year's election, could be 10 years, could be 20. All depends on how hard we shake the tree to make the apple fall.
I, for one, am going to dedicate a huge portion of my life to bringing this shit down, so I have hope. I'm only one person, though. Could be totally wrong and misplaced.
Many. If anything, Europe will "collapse" before the US as the USA consumes it through the process of vassalisation to keep itself alive. First the US will try win the the inter imperial rivalry between itself and it's allies (the EU and it's biggest member states, Australia, South Korea, Japan), which seems to be going well on the EU front given the Ukraine war. The EU is being successfully vassalised and has lost energy independence after the nordstream gas pipeline bombings. Then the US will shift focus to China.
I know people want to be optimistic, but the US is still a superpower. If you asked communists in the 1950s and early 60s, they probably also thought that the US had little time left, given the progress of the USSR, the rise of anti colonial movements, and the US still struggling massively with internal issues. But in the end, it was the USSR that collapsed, and the neoliberals got their "end of history" moment, until 9/11 happened.
It's been collapsing for decades, it's just now becoming more obvious. It's basically already at a collapsed state. I mean, what do we call a society where people regularly can't afford food, water, shelter, or medical attention? Collapse isn't "everything sucks for everyone." It's "everything sucks for most while some still manage to hold on." If you think it hasn't collapsed yet you just aren't yet a victim of it.
You still see white people living in nice neighborhoods and spending like crazy, so 🤷🏽♂️
