It seems like there's no way that Biden can make any negotiation with Russia seem like a win to his base so if he wins it's almost an automatic 4 more years of war. But if Trump wins he could make most of the concessions that Russia wants and still sell it as "the best deal" to his fans. Is a trump win the best hope for shortening war?
Disclaimer: I would never vote for trump, I also won't vote for Biden, I'm also in a state that always goes one way so it doesn't matter at all.
So yeah I agree the war is not likely to end this year. But I don’t think the Biden administration is at this point hoping for total defeat of Russia. Both Zelensky and Biden have indicated that the war will end at the negotiating table, and some officials are indicating that “Milley had a point” when he floated the possibility of peace talks winter 2022.
But what Biden says in that op-ed is I think what’s stopping them - “we have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry…so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” They don’t want to enter into negotiations looking weak, as they might not be able to force concessions from Russia in that situation. They missed their chance in 2022 when NATO felt emboldened by recent gains to prolong the war further. I think there was a hope that this summers counteroffensive would give Ukraine momentum to enter into negotiations with Russia on its back foot, but that has clearly failed and so the war continues. I don’t see how it will end if Ukraine does not start making some substantial territorial gains, however I don’t think the administration is so united behind the maximalist rhetoric being publicly espoused, and there is a desire to end the war without losing credibility. Any Russian successes will likely prolong the war, while any Ukrainian successes will make the moderates position more palatable.