Anyone has good advice on how to escape conscription and how to defect from the military?
In Ukraine? No idea. Normally paying off the commissariat would probably be the solution, but now it likely won't fly. Not living where you're registered might be a start though
I was assuming a hypothetical war between NATO and Russia. They'll have to conscript people and send them in suicide runs.
NATO has a standing army of ~3.4 million soldiers, and they do not have the ability to equip significantly more on short notice. If you live in a NATO country your chances of being conscripted are minimal even in the event of a conflict breaking out.
Any conflict requiring significantly more than current forces and volunteers could provide would in all likelihood end in nuclear annihilation, in which case there's no need to worry about the draft.
Your estimate doesn't account for marines, airmen, sailors, or officers. NATO has far far more then 3.4 million active soldiers. That is also not counting reserves and national guard or emergency units.
The United States alone has 1.5 million active duty personnel, and can comfortably raise an army of roughly 4.5-5 million reservists, national guards members, and recalled veterans. That’s BEFORE you count any new volunteers.
If that’s just the United States, that means NATO will never need to execute a draft in a million years, and if they do…. It’s already the point of no return and nuclear war is immediately imminent.
Can USA equip them all tho? Just look at last year's limited mobilization in Russia. There's a reason it was "limited", and it wasn't because more people weren't needed - our MoD had simply crunched some numbers and counted how many people it could realistically gear up. Even then there's been plenty of reports (from pro-russian sources!) about relatives of mobiks buying stuff for them with their own money We're talking night vision, body armour, small drones, etc
Can USA equip them all tho?
I would seriously doubt it. Our production and supply chains are a mess; when we "went into" (i.e., invaded) Syria, the air force had to cannabalize musuem planes for parts we couldn't make. The US Navy has about half of its planes inoperative, including two thirds of its strike aircraft. Soldiers have been complaining for the past twenty years about being given old guns, repaired with worn-out parts that jam. And if we can't compete with Russian shell and tank production now, in a proxy war, there's no way we'll be able to do it in an actual state-to-state conflict.
It depends. With current production? Not in a million years, though that’s a bit obvious because the current system isn’t designed to mobilize 5 million men. However, if war production shifted (that would probably take 6+ months) the US could easy mobilize and arm all of those soldiers.
Also the current US doctrine doesn’t require massive amounts of infantry that you have to equip. The focus is more on superior firepower through artillery and air power, and shock troops built around armored and mechanized divisions manned by veteran/professional career soldiers. Further, the navy is built around power projection, so you don’t need to man 1 million corvettes and frigates, hence the Navy has no need for conscripts.
The Air Force is extremely difficult to get into as is. The list of requirements is absurd, and they are essentially all professors flying jets, so I doubt that they’d let in hoards of random people WW2 style.
Simple grunt infantry is cannon fodder on the modern battlefield. Which is good, because then you don’t need to equip them all.
The focus is more on superior firepower through artillery and air power, and shock troops built around armored and mechanized divisions manned by veteran/professional career soldiers
You'll notice it's also nearly the same doctrine that Russian armed forces have in Ukraine - artillery dominance, select groups of professional assault troops. Likewise with the airforce - Russian airspace force is very professionally oriented. It's actually an issue, because it takes a lot of time and effort to train a pilot for Ka-52 for example. Heck, I don't know of any modern army that relies on "massive amounts of simple grunt infantry", as you put it. So I'm not sure where you are getting that this was suggestion.
But consider this: an M777 howitzer (used widely by Ukraine right now) has a minimum crew of 5, and a nominal crew of 9 + 1 driver. So that's 5 people at least, who each must receive at least one set of uniform (strictly speaking more, as per military regulations, but we're talking imaginary scenario here). That would be proper fabrics with regulation paint scheme, boots, socks, undershirts, etc. Since we're talking a war in EU, they'd also need a separate set of winter gear. Plus food, which must be manufactured, and logistics to get it to the actual troops. Five people, on some both basic and essential as a howitzer. Do you are where I'm going? And we haven't even looked at ammunition for the gun, spare parts, spare barrels, etc. And for artillery to function you also need recon of some kind - drones or forward observation troops. Radios. More uniforms, food, logistics.
That's what I meant by "equipping many people". There's zero need for any imaginary "human wave" for the task to become difficult, just economy. Takes a village to arm a soldier.
didn't people got drafted to vietnam, including boxing legend mohamed ali?
That wasn’t a wartime draft. A wartime draft is all men of service ability from the ages of 18-35.
After the end of World War 2, this was reduced to a “peacetime draft” which allowed the military to draft men 18-24 in case there were not enough volunteers. That’s how people got drafted into Vietnam and Korea.
After Vietnam the system was removed and the military shifted their doctrine significantly into a smaller, professional, career based volunteer system; which is currently used.
If the wartime draft is ever reinstated, the world is already over. Any scenario where a 5 million man army + more volunteers isn’t enough…. Something catastrophic has happened.
Don't worry. In that hypothetical your life will be just as short as everyone else. Well... unless you somehow survive into the nuclear wasteland and die of radiation sickness after 3 months.
Assuming you're in NA, I think your only options would be to run and hide somewhere, preferably with a bunch of like-minded people that you can rely on, or escaping to a neutral third country that won't repatriate your ass. If it comes to a hot war between NATO and Russia that somehow doesn't escalate to nukes I don't think bone spurs/shitting yourself/standard medical exemptions are going to apply, or at least they won't apply indefinitely. Being rich and powerful/being the child of the rich and powerful might help dodge conscription but I wouldn't want to rely on that.
A war between NATO and Russia would 90% turn nuclear and then conscription would be the least of our worries
But I am sure whole Europe will be vaporized along with UK. US can survive though, I think the government has a secret bunker 😁
the government and everybody else.
during the cold war, nuclear terror was constant in usa (not fault of ussr, but american media), so there is a shit ton of bunkers made by a variety of people
well then you'll probably be conscripted into being a pile of charred bones - best bet is to go rural, but even then honestly being alive might not be a positive after unless
was right all along
Organize around it and you may accidentally form a revolutionary army.
Revolutionary army in Europe? Yeah good luck with that. If NATO goes to war against Russia, this is going to play out like the Starship Troopers invasion of Klendathu. Every racist indocrinated piece of shit thinks they'll get to slaughter a hundred Russians each, and then the horrible military tactics end up getting the first waves of NATO troops absolutely obliterated.
Sounds like great conditions for a revolution actually.
Didn't the us basically almost have a revolution over the nam draft?
I think it's more likely that we're going to play Metro irl
You're talking about the other side. Revolutionary army is who's fighting those rabid racists
Get fat, be physically unable to run a mile in under 15 Mins, be rich? I dunno
You don't even need to eat low quality food, just eat a lot of pasta, noodles, rice, heavy carb meals, lot of them.
and cover that shit with some kind of cooking oil like butter or olive oil
Butter, l live oil will just give you like a healthy heart, don't want that for the fitness test lmao
Go on vacation early on to somewhere you have relatives and overstay your visa
remember to be a drug addicted, fat, flat footed, employee of a defence necessary industry
Helps you get sent to the front lines or to jail for being a Russian sympathizer.
Okay, maybe a religious angle then? "It is against my deeply held spiritual beliefs to harm another person"
I had some childhood asthma that conveniently flared up when I turned 18. They let me go and didn't even want to see me in person for the traditional testicle-fondling ritual.
Attacks on factories supplying war materials to a belligerent party in a conflict has always been legal.
If Russia was going to do it, they would have done so already.
Further, the moving of NATO specialists into Ukraine of course makes them legitimate targets, but that only matters if Russia has the ability to accurately strike wherever it is they are being hosted. Unless these classes are being held on the frontline, Russia has demonstrated no capability to do so.
Hot air like this only serves to make the speaker look less credible.
Russia has consistently hit specific buildings in Lviv, they have hypersonic missiles. They took out the Reddit volunteer army almost instantly in Western Ukraine. Russia can hit whatever they want inside Ukraine, they have a self-imposed muzzle on. Medvedev's role is attack dog, Putin's role is restrained and sensible administrator. They are both playing their role.
If Russia was going to do it, they would have done so already.
Russia has shown incredible restraint within this war already, many of the attacks that Ukraine did successfully on russian soil always relayed on western ISR to conduct its operations and maneuvers, had this been an actual war, instead of a Proxy conflict, these satellites would've been destroyed already. It show's more responsiblilty to Russians officials rather than incompetency.
Further, the moving of NATO specialists into Ukraine of course makes them legitimate targets, but that only matters if Russia has the ability to accurately strike wherever it is they are being hosted. Unless these classes are being held on the frontline, Russia has demonstrated no capability to do so.
Russia ISR has increased dramatically over this past year, had you said this in 2022 your claim may have been believable (albeit heavily skewed, and without proper analysis on russia's future war development and it's arsenal) but to say this in 2023? Where russia has not only demonstrated its capabilities to strike targets deep within Ukraine, but also is now ramping up new ways to strike within the country? It's simply absurd to claim this, as you will have to deny all the successful strikes which have annihilated multiples NATO HQs, Airfields, Military Factories, and even the SBU Headquarters! How can you say something like this when there's so much evidence which literally proves you wrong? And before you even try to diss russia's strike capability, america's was even worse with the scuds!
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This is how russia fires its missiles, does that seem like incompetency to you? Because to me it looks exactly what it looks like, russian missiles are hitting targets behind AA defences, and throwing off western ISR which tracts where these missiles might go.
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Hot air like this only serves to make the speaker look less credible.
Medvedev is not constrained by being a head of state, nor even a head of government, while yes his temper is brash and he speaks very, well weirdly lest just put it that way, he's not imprudent, unlike some actual western leaders, which have demonstrated their complete lack of interest in the future. His point stands, western leaders are fools, they cannot win this war, yet the seem to drag it out for no other purpose, if their plan was to starve Russia of money, they wouldn't be buying as much Russian oil as they had been before the war. Simply put, they want to win the war, without having to sanction russia properly, it's an embarrassing way to contain a 'pariah' nation.
Legitimate targets or not, avoiding escalation is more strategically important for Russia than destroying a few production lines in europe.
Bro , haven't you checked the blast wave in Kramatorsk ? There are regular UAV lancet flights in Odessa , Kharkiv. Russians are not playing around , if you bring them into a corner they can push the holy buttons.
