Disgustus [he/him]

  • 2 Posts
  • 56 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: December 21st, 2022

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  • Yes what you said is correct but Russia not just a middle man here. Russia is not merely playing the role of umpire here but is structuring the security arrangement of the Caspian basin and the Black Sea here.

    Turkiye’s interest can be summarized as they do not want an independent Kurdistan since about a quarter to a third of Turkiye would arguably be Kurdistan so in the interests of structuring a stable peace arrangement I don’t see why the Kurds get much out of this.

    If Turkiye is pulling out of Syria then I would assume that Syria (Assad) would be undertaking to limit Kurdish autonomy to limit Kurdish separatism in Turkiye.

    Which is interesting since it intersects with Iran and Azerbaijan. Iran is interested because there is a large Azeri minority and Iran wants to prevent Azeri separatism so there’s a kind of symmetry here that might be the basis for a grand settlement for the region, except I struggle to see how the Azeri-Iran hurdle is actually crossed in a secure way.



  • I can see a settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan fairly directly to be honest. They each need a corridor and the settlement will be both get their corridor.

    But Russia will need to settle things with Iran here. Iran’s opposition to that corridor is the only missing piece here. If that gets squared then you have a stable settlement for that part of the region, and a stable settlement that hinges on good Russian and Turkish relations.

    It would be a huge coup for Russia but I don’t see how Iran is going to be cool with it.

    Also the Kurds get screwed hard, as is tradition.